SOMETHING STARTS TO SPARK IN THE TROPICS, BAY OF BENGAL STORM POSSIBLE

A area of convection in the tropics is looking more and more like it could become our named tropical storm system in the Eastern Hemisphere this coming weekend in to next week.

 

Thing is it is not in the Western Pacific, but a little further west in the Bay of Bengal. Here moisture from the south west monsoon is starting to surge northward increasing the threat of developing systems along the leading edge of the monsoonal belt.

 

IR SAT

At this time the area of convection in question can be seen just south east of Sri Lanka.  No agencies are really discussing it at this time but numerical models are really pulling towards something developing.

 

The GFS shown below has a storm developing and moving just east of Sri Lanka early next week before tracking north towards Bangledesh.  I would think this scenario more likely given the placement of the monsoon at this time.

 

GFS TUE, MAY 17th OUTLOOK

The ECMWF takes the low a little further west per the latest model guidance tracking over Sri Lanka early next week before moving across southern India. In this scenario Sri Lanka could be under a flood threat.

 

ECMWF OUTLOOK

The reality is this is still a ways off and we are still watching the area of convection for its eventual development. Pending on where it does and when will determine what numerical guidance could be making the right call at this time.

 

As far as tropics in the Westpac, not much going on at all. In fact we are in one of the longest running tropical droughts in the basins recorded history (1950).

 

 

 

 

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