Could the south west monsoon finally start to turn on across South East Asia this coming week? It is very well possible and numerical models suggest an increase in winds across the South China Sea out of the South West.
This will be a result of the rainy season front setting up a firm grasp across southern China and Japan. With this in place a general counter clockwise circulation will flow in to it thus spurring on the rainy season for the region.
Most of Indo-China including Thailand and Vietnam have been suffering from drought due to record low rainfall the past several months. Not to mention the Philippines where a state of Calamity was issued last month in response to the low rainfall; specifically in Negros where cloud seeding operations have been underway to attempt to remedy the drought.
With the onset of the South West Monsoon more moisture could surge out of the tropics and bringing some much needed water for farmers continuing to suffer in this region.
Take a look at the GFS model below over the course of the coming weekend. There is a general idea between most models showing a situation like this, winds out of the SW gradually increasing through the weekend.
PAGASA has advised people there is a 50/50 chance of a extra strong monsoon this year, mainly a result of the gradually change to La Nina in the waters of the Pacific. If a La Nina indeed does rebound in after last year’s El Nino that would mean more rainfall for the Philippine Islands. On that same note it also means increase in wind shear and thus less tropical systems.
The South West Monsoon starts in May for this region and continues typically through September.