Daily update- Thursday, May 19, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 19 MAY

A new shot of cooler air moves into the north region as summer creeps into the region, while wet conditions persist over much of the central region. Parts of the south are heating up a bit more today, but plenty of rainfall relief is around, while the tropics continue to show slow signs of consolidation. 

NORTH

As the east clears out completely from the latest storm system, a new shot of cooler and drier air has moved into Mongolia and extreme northwestern China, dropping temperatures; as much as 17C (30F) in some places; and humidity levels across these areas. The air mass will moderate considerably as it slides across greater East Asia and mixes in with the very warm air to the east and south. Speaking of that warm air, temperatures will be at summer levels today across northeastern China and the Korean peninsula, with highs in the low-30’s (low 90’s F). Aside from a few showers associated with the storm system in Mongolia and extreme northern portions of China, the region will see a very nice, but quite hot, day, with most cloudiness restricted to the most southerly of locations within the region.

CENTRAL

The East Asian rainy season is settled in across the central region, as the battle of the air masses takes place in the NWPAC basin. The clash means that persistent showers and thunderstorms will continue to plague the region as a seemingly endless progression of weather systems slides through the area over the next several weeks. The latest system to pass through the region is stalled just offshore, and overriding moisture is bringing some clouds and showers to southeastern China and Taiwan, while some lifting energy from the front itself will offer up the possibility of thunderstorms over Okinawa this afternoon. Moisture moving in from the west over the weekend will ensure that the rainy season continues across the region.

SOUTH 

Tropical moisture has been built quickly over the south region, as wave after wave of moisture from the east slides through. This moisture has done a lot to moderate what was becoming an oppressive temperature scenario for much of the region last month. Now, with what appears to be a slow shift in the seasonal monsoon flow starting to take place, and a moisture-enhancing tropical cyclone feature in the Indian Ocean, it seems that things will stay rather wet over the south region for the next few days. It will warm up once again today over parts of interior Indochina where the rain does not fall. Where the rain falls, temperatures will be a bit more bearable. Afternoon thunderstorms are on tap for much of the region, so enjoy the rainy relief.

 TROPICS 

There are still no areas of concern in the tropics, but a very impressive tropical wave is currently moving through Micronesia, and if this were July, I’d be quite concerned. As it is, it’s mid-late May, and conditions are still not altogether favorable for development of any tropical systems out there, and it will likely stay that way for the next few weeks. Another wave of energy is passing through Indonesia and Brunei with showers and thunderstorms, as general cloudiness and convergence affect the remainder of the region.

Have a thoughtful Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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