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Daily update- Monday, May 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 MAY

NWPAC outlook, 23 MAY

Ripples of energy continue to slide across the north and central regions as the seasons battle it out along the méiyǔ front. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in a big way over the south region as the monsoonal shift continues to transpire. The tropics are also seeing a lot in the way of showers and thunderstorms, but no significant organization is on the horizon. 

NORTH

As the méiyǔ front, harbinger of the East Asia rainy season, slowly progresses northward with each passing day, we find more and more unsettled weather for portions of the north region as the battle lines between the seasons impacts the region. Most of the region is quite warm, indicative of the typical late-spring conditions that normally prevail this time of year. One front is draped over northern and western China, North Korea, and southeastern Russia, with an associated storm system charging through northeaster provinces of China. This boundary is marking a significant drop in humidity but not much change in temperatures. There will be clouds and a few showers over the eastern one-third of China, with increasing clouds over the Korean peninsula today. The remainder of the region should see a mix of clouds and sun and a warm afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

17

3 63 37

Mostly cloudy

Vladivostok

23

9 73 48

Partly cloudy

Beijing

23

12 73 54

Periods of rain

Seoul

27

17 81 63

Cloudy

Tokyo

27

19 81 66

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

24

11 75 52

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

26

19 79 66

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The central region has been, and will continue to be, the main focus of the energy associated with the East Asian rainy season, as the méiyǔ front slowly drifts northward with time. Today will be another very wet day across the region, with a few storms popping up in spots. The latest frontal system to pass through has pulled up stationary east of Taiwan, supplying enough energy to help lift up the moisture and squeeze out some showers and scattered thunderstorms in Okinawa and Taiwan. New moisture and energy coming in from the west, associated with an Indian Ocean cyclone in Bangladesh, will keep skies cloudy over southwestern China and northern Vietnam.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

19

11 66 52

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Taipei

27

24 81 75

Periods of rain

Naha

28

24 82 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

28

25 82 77

Cloudy

 

SOUTH 

What a difference a week makes, as the drought-ravaged areas of southeastern Asia and the Philippines get welcome relief in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Many elements are coming into place here to bring about the onset of the summer rainy season. Firstly, the East Asian rainy season is in full effect, which is a good indicator across the south that their rainy season is about to start. Secondly, tropical moisture from the east has been steadily filling into the region over the past 2 weeks, helping to develop a very moist atmosphere. Thirdly, pulses of weak continental energy are sweeping through the region, helping provide some lift for the moisture to generate the precipitation. And finally, southwestern energy was enhanced a bit over Indochina by a developing cyclone in the Indian Ocean, which has helped pump in even more moisture from that region. It all adds up into cooler temperatures and numerous showers and thunderstorms over the region. Looking far ahead, long-range computer models are suggesting residents of the northern Philippines may see a significant drought-busting rainfall event as we enter the month of June. Stay tuned.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

27 90 81

Afternoon thunderstorms

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

31

26 88 79

Mostly cloudy

Brunei

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

33

28 91 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS 

Although the tropics have been the source for helpful moisture over populated areas of Southeast Asia, the moisture is not organizing into anything significant, due to rather unfavorable atmospheric conditions in the middle and upper levels of the region. For now, the ocean’s heat continues to build, which translates into more evaporation, which leads to increased moisture over the region, which leads to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Yes, I am Mr. Obvious, and I write weather forecasts.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Partly cloudy

Yap

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

25 86 77

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

27

26 81 79

Mostly fair

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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