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Invest 90W Rings in 2016 as the first sign of activity in the Tropics

May 24, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

Invest 90W continues to keep our attention Wednesday morning in the South China Sea. The first actual sign of any sort of tropical activity in months has our weather team slowly awakening from its tropical hibernation. This is just a little nudge out of our near record breaking calmness in the western pacific though. There is not expectations on this storm become a named system as it slowly meanders to the north in to China through Thursday.

Invest 90W

Despite it being labeled a “invest” by the US Military which is their way of basically saying we need to watch these clouds more closely there has been no other Meteorological agencies to put a label on this area outside of referring to it as a “passing trough”.

Regardless tropical disturbances like this bring the threat of heavy rainfall and the chance of flooding. Especially in flood prone areas including river valleys and locations with poor drainage. This would include urban areas like Manila.

Even further south in to Cebu there has been evacuations in place due to the persistent heavy rainfall causing urban flooding in the city.

Forecast Through Friday

The heaviest rainfall will be from Thailand through Cambodia in to Vietnam. Here over 200mm in some areas is possible. If we look east in to the Philippines though the West coast of Luzon will see heavy showers Wednesday before easing but not ending in to Thursday. This comes on the same day as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared the onset of the rainy season. In a statement released by PAGASA, administrator Vicente Manalo said that “the southwest Monsoon was already upon the archipelago.” This will provide relief from the drought conditions affecting portions of the Philippines.

Guangdong China will also get mixed up with this Atmospheric river being supported by the Invest area. Do not look at anything to intense as far as winds. But Persistant heavy rainfall could cause river flooding in these flood prone areas of Southern China.

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Invest 90W develops in the South China Sea

May 24, 2016 by mikeadcock 0 Comments

Invest 90W Enhanced Infrared Satellite – MTSAT1

A tropical disturbance in the South China Sea has been designated as Invest 90W by the Naval Research Laboratory–the first of the 2016 Western Pacific Season. Although it has been designated as such, currently the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have yet to identify this as a suspect or low pressure area.

Looking at the forecast models, most global models do not develop the area any further that a weak disturbance. The exceptions are the Canadian and the NAVGEM, which develop a weak low pressure area and drift it northward toward southeast China by the end of the week. At this time, it appears that development, if any, will be slow to occur and will be limited. Increased rain showers across the Philippines and southeast China is the main threat, but rainfall totals in these regions appear to be limited to around 50 mm (with locally higher amounts) through the weekend.

One side effect of 90W is the disturbance is increasing rainfall across the Philippines this evening. This comes on the same day as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared the onset of the rainy season. In a statement released by PAGASA, administrator Vicente Manalo said that “the southwest Monsoon was already upon the archipelago.” This will provide relief from the drought conditions affecting portions of the Philippines.

NAVGEM 850 hPa wind, streamline, and surface highs and lows. Valid 26 May 2016 at 1200 UTC

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Daily update- Tuesday, May 24, 2016

May 24, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 24 MAY

The north and central regions gets a shot of tropical moisture as a storm system pulls up the remnants of cyclone ROANU from the south. Some of that moisture is lingering over the south bringing much-needed rainfall relief. The tropics are still quiet, and boring.

NORTH

Cyclonic storm ROANU, the Indian Ocean’s first system of the 2016 season, moved inland near Bangladesh last weekend. A storm system sweeping through has picked up that moisture and spread it out all over eastern Asia. This storm system is moving into southeastern Russia, with a trailing cold front that extends well to the southwest into parts of western and central China. Copious moisture riding along the cold front is bringing showers to the Korean peninsula, southeastern Russia, and eastern China as it slides through. Japan will see a steady increase in cloud cover through the day today, but showers should hold off until tonight or tomorrow. Locations behind the front will see drier air, but it feels a lot like summer out there as temperatures reach the lower 30’s C (upper 80’s F). On a side note, Mongolia will be an interesting place to be during the next 72 hours. Temperatures there will spike near 18C (64F) today, but then a shot of very cold air will clip the region tonight and tomorrow, dropping tomorrow’s high temperature to a mere 8C (46F). On Thursday, the pool of cold air will pull out of the area, and the Mongolian capital can expect highs to soar back up to 21C (70F). What a ride!

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	18	2	64	36	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	16	9	61	48	Periods of rain
Beijing	31	16	88	61	Mostly fair
Seoul	22	12	72	54	Periods of rain
Tokyo	26	20	79	68	Partly cloudy
Xi’an	31	18	88	64	Mostly fair
Shanghai	23	16	73	61	Scattered showers likely

CENTRAL

Moisture from cyclone ROANU has also been quickly transported through the central region, but the méiyǔ front likes to hold onto a good part of that moisture as it comes through, and the same is true today. The entire region will see at least some clouds, with rain increasing as you travel south and west through the region. This is due, in large part, to a stalled frontal system located to the east of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, giving the available moisture a little instability to work with.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	17	13	63	55	Periods of rain
Hong Kong	30	26	86	79	Partly cloudy
Taipei	28	23	82	73	Periods of rain
Naha	29	25	84	77	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	25	23	77	73	Periods of rain

SOUTH

Residents of the south region are dancing in the rain, literally, as the months-long drought over the region appears to be ending, or at least, getting a significant chunk taken out of it. Tropical moisture has been ramping up over the past week, thanks in part to the dissipation of cyclone ROANU in the Indian Ocean, and the constant feed of easterly moisture from the tropics that have settled into the region. The monsoonal shift has started to take place, and many locations are declaring the start of their summer rainy season. Just about everyone will see another round of showers and thunderstorms today, especially over parts of Indochina and the Philippines, where a complex weather scenario is playing out due to the encroachment of a VERY late-season surge of air from the north, interacting with the abundant moisture and energy in the south. Brunei will be the oddball spot today, as they take a break from the rain, but get a shot of hot weather as the intense sunshine bears down on them this afternoon.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	34	25	93	77	Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh	32	26	90	79	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	32	26	90	79	Thunderstorms likely
Davao City	34	25	93	77	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	36	27	97	81	Partly cloudy
Singapore	33	27	91	81	Thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

In a word, the tropics are quite boring. Moisture is still increasing due to continued heating of the ocean, and this moisture is being transported westward into the other areas of the region by the slowly-strengthening I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). At this time, there is nothing of interest out there, nor do long-range forecasts show the development of such in the foreseeable future. In the meantime, abundant moisture and lots of convective lifting from the relentless sun will help stir up numerous showers and thunderstorms for most locations across the region.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	33	27	91	81	Partly cloudy
Yap	32	27	90	81	Thunderstorms likely
Palau	30	27	86	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms likely
Pohnpei	30	24	86	75	Thunderstorms likely
Majuro	30	27	86	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Wake	27	26	81	79	Mostly fair

Have a transcendent Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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