Daily update- Wednesday, May 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 MAY

A taste of winter visits the northernmost reaches of the north region while locations to the south and east feel a bit summer-y. The central region deals with more monsoonal rain as the méiyǔ settles in. Vastly different conditions are in place over the south region and the tropics compared to last week as we have widespread rainfall across these regions, thanks in part to our first tropical disturbance of the season. 

NORTH

Residents of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia are waking up to snowfall this morning, compliments of an eastward shot of cold air that has clipped the northernmost portions of the country, seemingly rolling the calendar back a few months. To the south and east, MUCH warmer air is in place, with temperatures easily in the low to mid 20’s (low-mid 70’s F). A strong spring storm system is moving through southeastern Russia, and passing just north of Japan, and is dragging a cold front through the archipelago today. Skies should begin to clear over central Japan this afternoon. Moisture streaming in at the mid and upper levels will keep skies cloudy over western parts of the region, but rainfall will be limited by very dry air at the surface.

CENTRAL

The central region is once again at the mercy of the East Asian monsoon, or méiyǔ, as it continues to undulate over the region and bring in moisture from the west and southwest. A recent strong surge has pushed much of the activity far to the south however; a cold front is sweeping through the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan today, generating some clouds, showers, and thunderstorms as it rolls through. Copious moisture streaming in from the southwest is also bringing some clouds and showers to parts of southern China and northern Vietnam, especially in the afternoon.

SOUTH 

The weather situation has done a 180 degree reversal in the south region over the past 7-10 days. We went from a very dry, hot summer pattern, to a tropical, monsoonal rainy pattern seemingly overnight. All across the south region, rain is falling. And it’s all kinds of rain…to quote Forrest Gump: “Little bitty stingin’ rain… and big ol’ fat rain. Rain that flew in sideways. And sometimes rain even seemed to come straight up from underneath. Shoot, it even rained at night…” Run Forrest…RUN!

A very complicated weather scenario is playing out in the south today, as is common this time of year. A strong surge of continental energy has invaded the region from the north. The qualities of the air masses are not so different however; there is a LOT of energy associated with this surge. Not to mention that, at this time of year, the air in the south is not very receptive to these surges, and wild events can transpire when the two clash. In this case, we lots of eddys and swirls in the atmosphere, with a very complex trough system extending down from the main front near Taiwan. The southern extent of this trough has evolved into the season’s first tropical disturbance, 90W INVEST:

90W INVEST

90W INVEST, 25 MAY, 0800PST

At 0600PST, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) placed the center of tropical disturbance 90W INVEST near 16.2N, 113.2E, approximately 531km (330mi) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. This system is not expected to develop into a significant tropical system, and will likely track to the north north-east as an extra-tropical low before pulling away from the region along the cold front to the north. It will likely bring some significant rainfall to parts of Vietnam and the Philippines before its life-cycle is complete.

Elsewhere across the south, a monsoon trough extends to the west from 90W INVEST over southern Indochina, vastly increasing rain chances there. Lingering moisture will fire up into thunderstorms this afternoon over the remainder of the region as well.

TROPICS 

Aside from the development of 90W INVEST, which I don’t consider to be entirely a tropical occurrence due to the conditions where it has manifested, the tropics are relatively quiet. General convergent energy continues to ramp up slowly within the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) with focused areas of energy located out near the Marshall Islands and throughout much of Micronesia. Showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, are possible in just about every location throughout the region.

Have a way-out Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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