Archive | May, 2016

Daily update- Friday, May 27, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 27 MAY

NWPAC outlook, 27 MAY

It will be another wild temperature ride across parts of the north region as the central region gets in on the tropical weather action. The south clears out just a bit as 90W takes over the moisture in the region and the tropics remain silent, but building. 

NORTH

Residents and visitors of Mongolia should keep their coats, and cold remedies, handy for one more wild temperature swing this weekend Highs will reach the low 20’s (low 70’s F) this afternoon, before plummeting 27C (49F) tonight as another shot of cold, Siberian air clips the area. This will be followed by a chilly high of 11C (52F) on Saturday, a full 16C (27F) colder than today’s high, with another rebound into the low 20’s (low 70’s F) on Sunday. The rest of the region will see a much more stable temperature scenario, as drier air behind a couple of frontal systems settles into the northeastern reaches of the region. Japan and eastern China will see a good chance for showers as a front sweeps through today. To the west and south, tropical moisture from the south is combining with energy associated with the méiyǔ front to help keep clouds and showers in the outlook as well.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

26

-1 79 30

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

20

9 68 48

Partly cloudy

Beijing

31

16 88 61

Partly cloudy

Seoul

28

15 82 59

Mostly fair

Tokyo

22

17 72 63

Periods of rain

Xi’an

17

10 63 50

Periods of rain

Shanghai

22

20 72 68

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Tropical moisture in the form of TD 90W is moving into the region from the south, as the weak system slowly drifts to the north-northeast, in the general direction of Hong Kong. The system is nothing more than a rain-maker, with a few gusty squalls possible as it moves into the region. The system is already helping add moisture to the energy associated with the East Asian monsoon, or méiyǔ, so showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible for much of the region. Okinawa will see another nice day as they continue to get a break from the action, and parts of southwestern China will see a drier scenario today as well.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

23

14 73 57

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms

Taipei

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Naha

29

26 84 79

Mostly fair

Hanoi

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

90W takes over the moisture in the region, dragging it northward as it moves out of the region, leaving behind a warmer and drier set up for today. Let’s get to the main story, however:

TD 90W 

90W, 27 MAY

90W, 27 MAY

At 0630PST, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) placed the center of tropical disturbance 90W INVEST near 19.6N, 113.3E, approximately 309km (192mi) south-southwest of Hong Kong, China.

90W INVEST was described as a minimal tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) yesterday, and a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) was issued by JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in the afternoon as well. Due to land interaction and the system’s proximity to the mainland, the T.C.F.A. is likely to be rescinded very soon. This system is not expected to develop into a significant tropical system, and is forecast to drift to the north-northeast and move inland over southeastern China.

Scattered pockets of residual moisture remain in some spots across the south region as the monsoonal shift continues. Most locations can expect a chance of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon as the warm daytime sun heats up the air. The Philippines will likely see less chance for rainfall as energy from 90W pulls out of the area, leaving a rather stable atmosphere behind.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

 

 TROPICS 

The tropics have dished up the first system of the season, and it represented what the season has been so far…weak, and unremarkable. That trend looks to continue as the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) settles down just a bit more. Two weak easterly waves are drifting along with the westerly flow of the I.T.C.Z., with one in the western islands of Micronesia, and another pulling out of the Marshall Islands and into eastern Micronesia. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent across the region, the usual by-product of warm sunshine and a soupy atmosphere.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

32

27 90 81

Mostly fair

Chuuk

32

27 90 81

Mostly fair

Pohnpei

30

26 86 79

Scattered showers likely

Majuro

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

27

26 81 79

Mostly fair

Have a fun Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

 

Daily update- Thursday, May 26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26 MAY

NWPAC outlook, 26 MAY

Storm systems roll across the northern region, bringing clouds and showers while the méiyǔ front and monsoon stays locked in over the central region. The south region will once again see a rainy day thanks in large part to 90W INVEST in the South China Sea. The tropics stay quiet, aside from 90W, with very little in the way of activity noted this morning. 

NORTH

Cold medicines and remedies will be selling like hotcakes in Mongolia, where over the past 48 hours, they have seen the afternoon high temperature drop 9 degrees, only to rebound big time by 12 degrees today. Fortunately, they will have nice weather to help clear their heads. Two frontal systems are making their way through the northern third of the region, and temperatures are a bit cooler behind the fronts. The most noticeable difference is in the humidity, where the dry, Siberian air replaces the moist, tropical air that came up from the Indian Ocean earlier this week. A weak weather system pushing eastward from Japan will bring a few clouds to the archipelago, while méiyǔ energy from the south will keep things rather wet across eastern China.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

21

6 70 43

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

21

9 70 48

Mostly fair

Beijing

30

14 86 57

Mostly fair

Seoul

23

14 73 57

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

24

21 75 70

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

18

13 64 55

Cloudy

Shanghai

24

20 75 68

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

The East Asian monsoon, or méiyǔ, is alive and well across the central region, though some locations are getting a bit of a break. The last surge to push through the region has cleared things out for the most part. Residual moisture remains over much of the region, and more is on the way thanks to the steady west-southwesterly flow of the méiyǔ. But, aside from a few thunderstorms over southwestern China and northern Vietnam, and a few orographically-induced afternoon thunderstorms for Taiwan, the region should see a warm day with just a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

19

14 66 57

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Taipei

31

25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Naha

29

24 84 75

Mostly fair

Hanoi

29

25 84 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Plentiful moisture remains over much of the south region, helping to fuel the very slow development of our season’s first tropical disturbance, 90W INVEST:

90W INVEST

90W INVEST, 26 MAY

90W INVEST, 26 MAY

At 0830PST, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) placed the center of tropical disturbance 90W INVEST near 18.0N, 114.0E, approximately 450km (280mi) southeast of Haikou, Hainan Island, China. This system is not expected to develop into a significant tropical system, and is forecast to drift to the north and move inland over southern China as a rather meaningless system. It will likely bring some significant rainfall to parts of Vietnam and southern China before its life-cycle is complete.

The remainder of the region will see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as a deep layer of tropical moisture has entrenched itself over the region, allowing the intensely warm sunshine to lift it up and squeeze out the precipitation.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

35

27 95 81

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS 

The tropics have one weak system in the form of 90W INVEST, but aside from that, things are very quiet out there. One long line of enhanced convergent activity is located in eastern Micronesia, helping aid in the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, it’s just the usual dose of pop-up showers and thunderstorms on the menu, with no real threat in sight for the foreseeable future.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

25 86 77

Partly cloudy

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Mostly cloudy

Wake

27

26 81 79

Mostly fair

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily update- Wednesday, May 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 MAY

NWPAC outlook, 25 MAY

A taste of winter visits the northernmost reaches of the north region while locations to the south and east feel a bit summer-y. The central region deals with more monsoonal rain as the méiyǔ settles in. Vastly different conditions are in place over the south region and the tropics compared to last week as we have widespread rainfall across these regions, thanks in part to our first tropical disturbance of the season. 

NORTH

Residents of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia are waking up to snowfall this morning, compliments of an eastward shot of cold air that has clipped the northernmost portions of the country, seemingly rolling the calendar back a few months. To the south and east, MUCH warmer air is in place, with temperatures easily in the low to mid 20’s (low-mid 70’s F). A strong spring storm system is moving through southeastern Russia, and passing just north of Japan, and is dragging a cold front through the archipelago today. Skies should begin to clear over central Japan this afternoon. Moisture streaming in at the mid and upper levels will keep skies cloudy over western parts of the region, but rainfall will be limited by very dry air at the surface.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

9

0 48 32

Snow showers

Vladivostok

19

10 66 50

Scattered showers likely

Beijing

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

Seoul

26

16 79 61

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

23

21 73 70

Mostly cloudy, decreasing clouds

Xi’an

21

14 70 57

Mostly cloudy

Shanghai

26

20 79 68

Partly to mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The central region is once again at the mercy of the East Asian monsoon, or méiyǔ, as it continues to undulate over the region and bring in moisture from the west and southwest. A recent strong surge has pushed much of the activity far to the south however; a cold front is sweeping through the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan today, generating some clouds, showers, and thunderstorms as it rolls through. Copious moisture streaming in from the southwest is also bringing some clouds and showers to parts of southern China and northern Vietnam, especially in the afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

21

14 70 57

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Taipei

29

24 84 75

Mostly cloudy

Naha

28

25 82 77

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

29

25 84 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH 

The weather situation has done a 180 degree reversal in the south region over the past 7-10 days. We went from a very dry, hot summer pattern, to a tropical, monsoonal rainy pattern seemingly overnight. All across the south region, rain is falling. And it’s all kinds of rain…to quote Forrest Gump: “Little bitty stingin’ rain… and big ol’ fat rain. Rain that flew in sideways. And sometimes rain even seemed to come straight up from underneath. Shoot, it even rained at night…” Run Forrest…RUN!

A very complicated weather scenario is playing out in the south today, as is common this time of year. A strong surge of continental energy has invaded the region from the north. The qualities of the air masses are not so different however; there is a LOT of energy associated with this surge. Not to mention that, at this time of year, the air in the south is not very receptive to these surges, and wild events can transpire when the two clash. In this case, we lots of eddys and swirls in the atmosphere, with a very complex trough system extending down from the main front near Taiwan. The southern extent of this trough has evolved into the season’s first tropical disturbance, 90W INVEST:

90W INVEST

90W INVEST, 25 MAY, 0800PST

90W INVEST, 25 MAY, 0800PST

At 0600PST, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) placed the center of tropical disturbance 90W INVEST near 16.2N, 113.2E, approximately 531km (330mi) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. This system is not expected to develop into a significant tropical system, and will likely track to the north north-east as an extra-tropical low before pulling away from the region along the cold front to the north. It will likely bring some significant rainfall to parts of Vietnam and the Philippines before its life-cycle is complete.

Elsewhere across the south, a monsoon trough extends to the west from 90W INVEST over southern Indochina, vastly increasing rain chances there. Lingering moisture will fire up into thunderstorms this afternoon over the remainder of the region as well.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

27 91 81

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS 

Aside from the development of 90W INVEST, which I don’t consider to be entirely a tropical occurrence due to the conditions where it has manifested, the tropics are relatively quiet. General convergent energy continues to ramp up slowly within the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) with focused areas of energy located out near the Marshall Islands and throughout much of Micronesia. Showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, are possible in just about every location throughout the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

32

27 90 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

25 84 77

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

27

25 81 77

Mostly fair

Have a way-out Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

=================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Invest 90W Rings in 2016 as the first sign of activity in the Tropics

Invest 90W continues to keep our attention Wednesday morning in the South China Sea. The first actual sign of any sort of tropical activity in months has our weather team slowly awakening from its tropical hibernation.  This is just a little nudge out of our near record breaking calmness in the western pacific though.  There is not expectations on this storm become a named system as it slowly meanders to the north in to China through Thursday.

Invest 90W

Invest 90W

Despite it being labeled a “invest” by the US Military which is their way of basically saying we need to watch these clouds more closely there has been no other Meteorological agencies to put a label on this area outside of referring to it as a “passing trough”.

Regardless tropical disturbances like this bring the threat of heavy rainfall and the chance of flooding. Especially in flood prone areas including river valleys and locations with poor drainage. This would include urban areas like Manila.

Even further south in to Cebu there has been evacuations in place due to the persistent heavy rainfall causing urban flooding in the city.

Forecast Through Friday

Forecast Through Friday

The heaviest rainfall will be from Thailand through Cambodia in to Vietnam.  Here over 200mm in some areas is possible.  If we look east in to the Philippines though the West coast of Luzon will see heavy showers Wednesday before easing but not ending in to Thursday.  This comes on the same day as the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declared the onset of the rainy season.  In a statement released by PAGASA, administrator Vicente Manalo said that “the southwest Monsoon was already upon the archipelago.”  This will provide relief from the drought conditions affecting portions of the Philippines.

 

Guangdong China will also get mixed up with this Atmospheric river being supported by the Invest area. Do not look at anything to intense as far as winds. But Persistant heavy rainfall could cause river flooding in these flood prone areas of Southern China.