Daily update- Friday, June 3, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 03 JUN

A new cool front makes its way into the north region as méiyǔ energy continues to affect the southern parts of the region. The méiyǔ moisture and energy creeping into the north region is once again impacting parts of the central region with flooding rain. The central region will see another rather benign day with plenty of warmth and a chance of thunderstorms. The tropics are still very quiet, and look to stay that way through the weekend. 

NORTH

The latest storm system to pass through the region brought some unexpected snow to parts of northern Japan yesterday. This storm system continues to pull to the east-northeast, away from the archipelago, clearing the skies and warming up temperatures. A new shot of cooler, drier air is moving into northern China today. Clouds and showers associated with this front will stretch across all of northern China and Mongolia through the day. Méiyǔ energy and moisture is affecting eastern China, as the latest cold front slows down considerably and a new pulse of energy approaches from the southwest, helping provide the additional energy for showers and occasional thunderstorms.

CENTRAL

The méiyǔ front is entering another active stretch as a frontal system from the north pulls up stationary, and a pulse of energy and moisture moves in from the southwest, combining over the region for a very wet weather scenario. More flooding rain can be expected over portions of south-central and southeastern China, especially in the higher inland terrain, where the southerly surface wind flow will roll up the mountains, and help provide orographic lift to the moisture and enhance showers and thunderstorms. Inclement weather will stretch over to the northeast, affecting the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan as well with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Along the Chinese-Vietnamese border, where méiyǔ energy is lacking, skies will be relatively clear, allowing temperatures and heat indices to reach hazardous levels this afternoon. Residents and visitors are urged to exercise caution if taking part in outdoor activities in this area.

SOUTH

The south region will see another very warm day, especially across parts of the interior Southeast Asian peninsula, where the deepest moisture has been absent for the past couple of days. The moisture profile is a little more widespread today across the region, so afternoon thunderstorm chances return to Cambodia, southern Laos, and southern Vietnam. The Philippines will also see another good chance for rain as a weak trough lingers over the archipelago. Rainy weather is also likely for locales to the south, where Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia will all see afternoon thunderstorms.

 TROPICS 

This will be short and sweet today, because there is very little to watch for in the tropics right now. An upper-level low north of eastern Micronesia will keep wind shear values high over this portion of the region, and general energy and moisture profiles are simply not conducive for development right now. Long-range models are not showing much either, as far out at 10 days. For now, everyone living in the tropics can expect wonderfully warm weather with occasional showers or thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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