Daily update- Monday, June 6, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUN

Warm temperatures keep creeping northward as the méiyǔ front slowly crawls northward. Méiyǔ energy is still keeping things wet and stormy across the central region. The south region will see a another day of hot sun and afternoon showers, and the tropics are showing renewed signs of life as we start to really get into the season.

 NORTH

Warm air is winning the battle over the north region, as temperatures keep inching upwards with each passing day, in spite of repeated intrusions of drier and slightly cooler air from the northwest. Today, a storm system over southeastern Russia will slowly track eastward, with a trailing cold front, that has pulled up stationary over the northern portion of the region. Cooler air, moisture, and energy from the frontal system will help bring about clouds and a few light showers over northern China, southeastern Russia, and the Korean peninsula. The remainder of the region will see a nice, late spring day with warm afternoon highs, lots of sunshine, and a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

The central region is seeing weather that is similar to the south region, as tropical moisture from the south establishes itself firmly over the region, offering up a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A stationary frontal system is located over the Ryukyu Islands, which will help enhance rain chances in Okinawa. The daily run of showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeastern China, with the continued threat of flooding and landslides. Elsewhere, the moisture and heat are in place, and just need a lift from the afternoon sun to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms.

SOUTH

Tropical moisture and the hot afternoon sun will help showers and thunderstorms pop up across much of the south region today. A vigorous upper-level low pressure system is tracking westward between Guam and the Philippines. This feature has been showing an anomalous surface reflection along its western periphery, a result of cooler air being forced into much warmer, humid air at the surface. It appears that this is a diurnal aspect to this development, and the moisture plume will be moving across the Philippines today. I suspect that with the diurnal component, intense afternoon sun and heating, along with orographic lifting, we could see some severe thunderstorms across the Philippines, especially over the higher terrain of Luzon. Localized flooding and even a few landslides could take place. Residents of the Philippines, especially mountainous provinces of Luzon, are urged to monitor their local weather agency, PAGASA, for any relevant updates. The remainder of the south region will see a rather quiet day, with lots of afternoon heat to help lift up the moisture and generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

 TROPICS

The tropics are showing some signs of life, however, our one weak system on the books last Friday, 92W INVEST, has dissipated, so there are no suspected areas of development out there. An upper-level low pressure area is tracking westward between Guam and the Philippines, and general surface instability associated with this feature will bring showers and thunderstorms to the archipelago. Elsewhere, general unsettled weather associated with weak tropical waves can be found scattered across the region, with more focused areas in Indochina, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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