Daily update- Thursday, June 9, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 09 JUN

Parts of the north region are seeing temperatures plunge as cooler air invades the northernmost reaches. The central region will continue to deal with lots of moisture and rainfall. The south will also see a healthy dose of afternoon showers as the intense heat returns to Indochina. And, the tropics finally serve up a little swirl in the form of 93W INVEST.

 NORTH

Temperatures have plummeted across Mongolia today, where yesterday they saw a sunny afternoon high of 25C (77F), only to see the mercury struggle to reach 12C (54F) today under cloudy and rainy skies. The storms system responsible for the plunge is tracking eastward into northeastern China today, with a trailing cold front that extends to the west and south, parallel to the Mongolian-Chinese border. Several weak impulses of energy are cruising through the region, bringing a few clouds and showers to some locales. Moisture overriding a stationary frontal boundary south of Japan will keep skies cloudy today over the northern three-fourths of the archipelago, as well as over portions of eastern China. Aside from the cooler temperatures to the far north, the rest of the region will see a very summer-like day, with lots of warm sunshine and a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

Ample moisture remains over the central region, even as the méiyǔ front continues to trek slowly northward over time. A developing low pressure area in the Gulf of Tonkin will help draw more moisture into the southern portions of the region, and the low will also help provide some lift as the moisture is forced upwards in the higher terrain. Parts of southern and southeastern China will see more flooding rain, with the possibility of landslides and other hazards associated with heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the region, ample sunshine will help lift the deep moisture up to generate a few showers and thunderstorms over much of the south region today. Where the rain does not fall, temperatures will be near summertime levels.

SOUTH

The south region will see another day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today, especially over the countries surrounding the South China Sea. A very complex weather scenario is taking shape here, where we have several factors working together to bring about lots of inclement weather. First, we have deep tropical moisture firmly in place across the entirety of the region. Secondly, a late-season continental surge has moved into the northernmost reaches of the region, aiding in general instability in the atmosphere. Finally, a sub-tropical low is developing in the Gulf of Tonkin, which is helping provide additional lift and energy. All in all, this means that most of the region will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and rain could be heavy in the higher terrain locations of Vietnam and the Philippines. In addition, parts of interior Indochina will see a brief return of the intense heat we saw last month, thanks to the developing low east of Vietnam as it pulls down some slightly drier air, clearing the skies a bit for the sun to really heat things up. Highs will approach 39C (102F), and heat indices reaching 46C (115F) in parts of Laos and Cambodia, and interior portions of Vietnam. To the south, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating.

 TROPICS

The tropics are starting to once again show some signs of life as 93W INVEST takes center stage.

93W INVEST

93W, 09 JUN, 0900PST

93W INVEST was designated early yesterday morning, after I had written the daily report, therefore, there was no mention of it. The weak system still exists today, and looks fairly impressive on satellite loops. The low pressure area is a bit broad and undefined, but a swirl can be found near 5N, 135E, 250km (155mi) south-southeast of Koror, Palau, Micronesia. The weak system is drifting to the west, embedded in the general flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). This one has us scratching our heads just a bit, because computer models show no development of any kind out there, but the little bugger seems determined to try anyway. As of this moment, there are no risks or hazards associated with this weak system. We will watch it closely and let you know right away if anything changes.

Elsewhere across the tropics, general wind convergence will help generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the tropic region, as afternoon highs get toasty warm on the beach.

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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