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Daily update – Friday, June 10, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 10 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 10 JUN

It’s feeling a whole lot like summer in the north region as temperatures continue to inch upwards. The central region remains wet and soggy as tropical moisture and méiyǔ energy continue to batter the region. Tropical moisture is well in place over the south region as well, offering up another day of drought-relieving rainfall. The tropics have hiccupped just a bit, but now appear to be going back to sleep. 

NORTH

Temperatures are steadily climbing upwards as the summer solstice approaches. A shot of cooler air has moved into Mongolia and extreme northern China, and while the temperature difference is significant, the air mass is still quite mild. The storm system responsible for this surge is tracking eastward through northeastern China, bringing clouds and showers to the northern one-third of the region. To the southwest, warm air advection ahead of the cold front will force temperatures to approach hazardous levels, with highs in the upper 30’s C (upper 90’s F) and humidity levels driving heat indices up into the lower 40’s C (low 100’s F). The remainder of the region will see warm temperatures and mostly fair weather with just a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

18

5 64 41

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

19

11 66 52

Cloudy

Beijing

33

19 91 66

Periods of rain

Seoul

31

20 88 68

Mostly fair

Tokyo

26

19 79 66

Mostly fair

Xi’an

37

21 99 70

Partly cloudy and HOT

Shanghai

27

21 81 70

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

It will be another wet day across most of the central region, as the latest surge from the northwest starts to retreat, pulling up parallel to the southeastern Chinese seaboard, and bring more energy and instability into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across most of the region, with flooding rain once again likely for parts of southeastern China, especially in the higher terrain. Flooding concerns also exist over Taiwan, where the rapidly increasing terrain will generate some very heavy rain at times. Rain chances decrease a bit as you travel west and south, as a newly-developing low pressure area in the Gulf of Tonkin pulls in the local supply of low-level moisture from the South China Sea, and the backside circulation brings in slightly drier air from the north over parts of northern Indochina.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

23

16 73 61

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

28

25 82 77

Thunderstorms likely

Naha

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

32

27 90 81

Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Deep tropical moisture is well-entrenched over the south region, where a complicated weather situation continues to work itself out. A developing low latitude extra-tropical low pressure area in the Gulf of Tonkin is going to dry things out a bit over portions of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, as the backside of the system’s circulation brings in some slightly drier and more stable air from the north. This drier air will heat up quickly due to the lack of cloud cover, so heat indices will once again approach hazardous levels over portions of interior Indochina this afternoon. To the east, this developing system will help draw up moisture from the southwest into the Philippines, raising rain chances over the northern third of the archipelago, especially in provinces along the western seaboard. Moisture from the remnants of 93W INVEST will begin to move into the southern Philippines today, raising rain chances there. Rain chances are also good over the southern locales of the region, as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei all look forward to a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

38

27 100 81

Partly cloudy and HOT

Ho Chi Minh

36

27 81 79

Partly cloudy and HOT

Manila

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

 

 TROPICS

Although most activity in the tropics is quite muted in the early part of this year’s season, the tropics have kicked out a very weak system in the form of 93W INVEST:

93W INVEST 

The N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) designated this weak area of disturbed weather 93W INVEST Wednesday morning, and for a while yesterday it looked like it had legs. A little swirl of the clouds was appearing to form and, since computer forecast models were showing nothing, some of us were starting to think we might have a surprise on our hands. Well, it hasn’t taken long for that theory to get busted, as what was one focused swirl in the clouds has exploded into several weak swirls along a generally weak area of convergence and trough feature. In all likelihood, I believe 93W INVEST will be taken off the books later today, as moisture from the system begins to move into the southern Philippines. The last documented position given by NOAA at 2 a.m. PST was 8.2N, 132.3E. The system is drifting westward at about 20 kph, and will move through the southern Philippines over the next 48 hours, enhancing rain chances greatly.

Elsewhere across the tropics, it’s almost as if 93W pulled whatever available energy was in the tropics to it, and left the rest of the region devoid of any significant activity. A couple of weak pulses of energy are drifting along the general westward flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms possible

Yap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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