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Weekend update- June 11/12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 11/12 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 11/12 JUN

A new shot of cooler air will slide through the north region this weekend, offering up some clouds and showers for much of the region. Meiyu energy remains over the central region with another strong impulse scheduled to move through over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms continue over much of the south region while the tropics go back to a more neutral behavior scenario.

NORTH

A new shot of slightly cooler and drier air is making its way through the north region this weekend. The main focus of energy is over northeastern China and southeastern Russia, and will linger there throughout the weekend, with a trailing cold front slowly making its way to the south and east. Showers will be most prevalent along the frontal boundary to the north, and also in the far south of the region, where a new surge of méiyǔ energy and moisture will work into the region from the southwest. It will be a warm weekend across the lower two-thirds of the north region, with cooler temperatures in northern China, Mongolia, and southeastern Russia, as well as the rainier locations to the south and east.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar

18

64 17 63 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. showers

Vladivostok

19

66 19 66 Sctd. showers

Sctd. showers

Beijing

31

88 32 90 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Seoul

28

82 27 81 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

26

79 25 77 Mostly fair

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

33

91 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. showers

Shanghai

27

81 23 73 Sctd. t-storms

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

There will be more of the same in the central region this weekend, as a new surge of tropical moisture coming in from the southwest will combine with general instability in the region, thanks to the méiyǔ, and an incoming surge from the north, to bring lots of clouds and rain, with some heavier thunderstorms, to most locations through the weekend. The lone holdout will be portions of northern Vietnam and southern China, where a complicated scenario of developing low pressure areas and other factors will keep rain chances lower, allowing the sun to shine through and the causing the heat to ramp up to dangerous levels, with heat indices approaching 46C (115F).

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

20

68 21 70 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Hong Kong

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Taipei

27

81 33 91 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

Naha

29

84 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Hanoi

37

99 36 97 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

It will be another hot day over interior portions of Indochina today, as a developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Tonkin finally starts to move inland, and combine this weekend with another bit of energy and moisture coming in from the west. There is just enough circulation around the developing low to create a weak return flow from the north over parts of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, and it’s just enough to bring in slightly drier and more stable air from the north, helping quash any significant clouds or shower development, especially today. This will help drive up the temperatures to hazardous levels at the peak of afternoon heating, with heat indices in some spots approaching 46C (115F). Plentiful tropical moisture is in place region-wide, so just about everyone will see a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Philippines, where remnant moisture and energy from the now-defunct 93W INVEST will move into the southern half of the archipelago, and general instability continues in the northern half.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

37

99 37 99 Partly cloudy

Sctd. T-Storms

Ho Chi Minh

33

91 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

32

90 31 88 Sctd. T-Storms

Thunderstorms

Davao City

32

90 32 90 Partly cloudy

Sctd. T-Storms

Brunei

33

91 32 90 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Singapore

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS

I will keep this section short, since there’s just nothing really happening out there at this time. The remnants of 93W INVEST will drift into parts of the southern Philippines this weekend, enhancing rainfall chances there, especially on Sunday. Other weak ripples of energy embedded within the general westerly flow of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) will affect the islands throughout the region this weekend, with very warm temperatures across the entirety of the tropical western Pacific.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

32

90 31 88 Partly Cloudy

Sctd. T-Storms

Yap

33

91 33 91 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Palau

30

86 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

31

88 31 88 Sctd. T-Storms

Thunderstorms

Pohnpei

31

88 30 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

Majuro

28

82 30 86 Sctd. T-Storms

Partly Cloudy

Wake

29

84 29 84 Thunderstorms

Mostly fair

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com

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