NWPAC outlook, 14, JUN
The East Asian monsoon continues to wreak havoc across the north and central region, as it works slowly to the north with each passing day. The south region heats up again as the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) changes start to work slowly into the global climate. The tropics remain silent today, which is both a blessing and a curse.
NORTH
Méiyǔ energy and moisture continue to creep into the north region as the East Asian rainy season, commonly called the plum rain, known as 梅雨, or, méiyǔ in China; 梅雨, or tsuyu/baiu in Japan; 장마, or, jangma in Korea; and затяжные, or, zatyazhnie in Russia, slowly works into the more northerly latitudes with each passing day. Much of the energy has been pushed south with the latest surge, but a new storm system will generate clouds, showers, and thunderstorms across Mongolia, Russia, and northern China later today. Other locations across the region will see a break today, but it will be short-lived with more energy moving into the region through the week.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Ulaanbaatar |
20
|
8 |
68 |
46 |
Scattered showers likely
|
| Vladivostok |
18
|
11 |
64 |
52 |
Cloudy
|
| Beijing |
22
|
17 |
72 |
63 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Seoul |
29
|
20 |
84 |
68 |
Mostly fair
|
| Tokyo |
25
|
19 |
77 |
66 |
Partly cloudy
|
| Xi’an |
36
|
21 |
97 |
70 |
Partly cloudy and HOT
|
| Shanghai |
29
|
23 |
84 |
73 |
Mostly fair
|
CENTRAL
The latest surge from the north has pushed the East Asian monsoon front back down into the region, firing up more showers and thunderstorms across the region. Parts of southeastern China and Taiwan have already been inundated for the past several days, and Okinawa has seen severe weather break out at times. There will be more of the same for the next few days as lingering energy and incoming moisture generate round after round of rainfall. To the southwest, most of the moisture has been pulled away to the northeast, as a developing semi-stationary low pressure area over the Gulf of Tonkin evacuates the moisture and brings slightly drier air in from the north on the return flow of the system, stabilizing the atmosphere enough to suppress shower development. Temperatures will be hot over northern Vietnam and southern China, with heat indices approaching 48C (118F) in some spots.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Kunming |
25
|
16 |
77 |
61 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Hong Kong |
32
|
28 |
90 |
82 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Taipei |
34
|
26 |
84 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Naha |
28
|
26 |
82 |
79 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Hanoi |
39
|
29 |
102 |
84 |
Partly cloudy & HOT
|
SOUTH
The south region will see a rather benign weather scenario today, as latent moisture stays entrenched over the region and gets fired up by the intense afternoon sun into scattered clouds, showers, and thunderstorms. As has been the case for the past several days, slightly drier air from the north will keep showers activity muted across much of interior Indochina, helping temperatures jump way up and bringing heat indices up to hazardous levels. Just about everyone will see the possibility of an afternoon thunderstorm, and some of these storms could dump locally heavy rains in some spots with the possibility of localized flooding and landslides in the higher terrain.
| City |
High/Low
C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
| Siem Reap |
37
|
27 |
99 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms & HOT
|
| Ho Chi Minh |
33
|
26 |
91 |
79 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
| Manila |
32
|
25 |
90 |
77 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Davao City |
33
|
24 |
91 |
75 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Brunei |
32
|
25 |
90 |
77 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Singapore |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
TROPICS
I have another short and sweet report on the tropics today as there is nothing in the way of significant weather out there. Scattered pockets of general convergence embedded within the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) will help generate showers and scattered thunderstorms for most locations.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Guam |
33
|
28 |
91 |
82 |
Partly cloudy
|
| Yap |
34
|
26 |
93 |
79 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
| Palau |
30
|
27 |
86 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Chuuk |
30
|
26 |
86 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Pohnpei |
30
|
24 |
86 |
75 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
| Majuro |
30
|
27 |
86 |
81 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
| Wake |
29
|
27 |
84 |
81 |
Partly cloudy
|
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA
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June 14, 2016 
