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Daily update- Tuesday, June 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14, JUN

NWPAC outlook, 14, JUN

The East Asian monsoon continues to wreak havoc across the north and central region, as it works slowly to the north with each passing day. The south region heats up again as the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) changes start to work slowly into the global climate. The tropics remain silent today, which is both a blessing and a curse.

 NORTH

Méiyǔ energy and moisture continue to creep into the north region as the East Asian rainy season, commonly called the plum rain, known as 梅雨, or, méiyǔ in China; 梅雨, or tsuyu/baiu in Japan; 장마, or, jangma in Korea; and затяжные, or, zatyazhnie in Russia, slowly works into the more northerly latitudes with each passing day. Much of the energy has been pushed south with the latest surge, but a new storm system will generate clouds, showers, and thunderstorms across Mongolia, Russia, and northern China later today. Other locations across the region will see a break today, but it will be short-lived with more energy moving into the region through the week.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

20

8 68 46

Scattered showers likely

Vladivostok

18

11 64 52

Cloudy

Beijing

22

17 72 63

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Seoul

29

20 84 68

Mostly fair

Tokyo

25

19 77 66

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

36

21 97 70

Partly cloudy and HOT

Shanghai

29

23 84 73

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

The latest surge from the north has pushed the East Asian monsoon front back down into the region, firing up more showers and thunderstorms across the region. Parts of southeastern China and Taiwan have already been inundated for the past several days, and Okinawa has seen severe weather break out at times. There will be more of the same for the next few days as lingering energy and incoming moisture generate round after round of rainfall. To the southwest, most of the moisture has been pulled away to the northeast, as a developing semi-stationary low pressure area over the Gulf of Tonkin evacuates the moisture and brings slightly drier air in from the north on the return flow of the system, stabilizing the atmosphere enough to suppress shower development. Temperatures will be hot over northern Vietnam and southern China, with heat indices approaching 48C (118F) in some spots.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

25

16 77 61

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

32

28 90 82

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

34

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

39

29 102 84

Partly cloudy & HOT

 

SOUTH

The south region will see a rather benign weather scenario today, as latent moisture stays entrenched over the region and gets fired up by the intense afternoon sun into scattered clouds, showers, and thunderstorms. As has been the case for the past several days, slightly drier air from the north will keep showers activity muted across much of interior Indochina, helping temperatures jump way up and bringing heat indices up to hazardous levels. Just about everyone will see the possibility of an afternoon thunderstorm, and some of these storms could dump locally heavy rains in some spots with the possibility of localized flooding and landslides in the higher terrain.

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap

37

27 99 81

Scattered thunderstorms & HOT

Ho Chi Minh

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

I have another short and sweet report on the tropics today as there is nothing in the way of significant weather out there. Scattered pockets of general convergence embedded within the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) will help generate showers and scattered thunderstorms for most locations.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

33

28 91 82

Partly cloudy

Yap

34

26 93 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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