Archive | June 17, 2016

Daily update- Friday, June 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 17 JUN

The north region gets a bit of a break today as parts of the region heat up in a big way. Méiyǔ moisture and energy stay entrenched over the central region for another day while some spots in the south could see a few showers. The tropics are still vacant of anything threatening, but the trained eye can see signs of what’s ahead.

 NORTH

One weak storm system pushing off the Japanese Pacific coast is pulling away most of the moisture in the region, while another weak storm system moves through Mongolia and northern China. Most locations across the region will see a nice, warm day, with just a few scattered clouds in some spots. Temperatures are going to spike over portions of central China, with readings in the upper 30’s C (low 100’s F) and heat indices approaching hazardous levels.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

23

8 73 46

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

20

10 68 50

Partly cloudy

Beijing

31

18 88 64

Partly cloudy

Seoul

28

18 82 64

Mostly fair

Tokyo

27

21 81 70

Mostly fair

Xi’an

39

22 102 72

Mostly fair & HOT

Shanghai

29

22 84 72

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

The East Asian monsoon continues to ravage parts of the central region as deep moisture remains and gets stirred up a bit by energy along a stalled frontal boundary that stretches from northeast to southeast along the entirety of the Chinese seaboard. There’s not a lot of energy present, so most storms that form today will be slow to move and rather explosive in development, especially over the higher terrain. Flooding rainfall and possible landslides could result from the heavy rain. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures down a bit for much of the region, with northern Vietnam being the lone exception, with scattered clouds and a hot afternoon ahead.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

16 75 61

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

28 88 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Naha

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Today will be another ‘garden-variety’ day across the south region today. Ample moisture remains across the region, and when combined with the intense sunshine, will get lifted up to form clouds, showers, and thunderstorms, some occasionally heavy. Temperatures will be warm across the region, but no hazardous heat conditions are expected.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Brunei

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

Singapore

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

For yet another day, the tropics are mostly quiet and unimpressive. There is an area of very strong convergence located south of Guam. Normally I don’t talk much about these types of features, but I was impressed with the motion while observing on satellite loops this morning. It’s not expected to develop into anything significant, but it is indicative of the slowly-developing conditions in the NW Pacific, which once it gets started, will be kicking out some impressive systems later this year. For today, general convergence within the region will help bring about a chance for showers and thunderstorms for most locations, with areas to the north seeing lower probabilities.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

33

27 91 81

Partly cloudy

Yap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms possible

Have a fruitful Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Typhoon Hunters return to the Western Pacific

For those who track and forecast storms in the western pacific there is a extra challenge in doing so compared to our friends in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic and that is a lack of aircraft recon.

 

Consistent typhoon reconnaissance ended nearly 30 years ago in 1987 with the closing of the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron base in Guam.

 

The squadron was responsible for some of the lowest official pressure readings in history in a tropical cyclone and was key in forecasting the storms for a half a century.

 

In 2010 a hurricane hunter ventured in to the western pacific to study the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific or “ITOP”.   The last flight to punch a eye wall in the Western Pacific was on October 18th 2010.

 

Taiwan still does flights on a irregular basis around storms to get steering flow information but never near the storms core.

aircraft

This could be changing in the near future though thanks to a Japanese Research team from Nagoya University, the University of the Ryukus and the Japan Meteorological Agency.

 

They have purchased a Lear Jet and equipped it with observational equipment including drop sondes. These are a type of equipment that are launched from the bottom of aircraft to get a gauge of the atmosphere inside a typhoon.

 

Flights are expected to start in 2017 and continue through 2020 with hopes of extending if funding remains suitable.

 

The Jet is likely to be stationed in Okinawa in southern Japan a location that is hit often several times a year by typhoons.

 

Due to the small size of the aircraft compared to its cousin the C-130 hurricane hunters it may not be able to punch the eye wall on significant typhoons, but one of the researchers during a interview with NHK TV stated they will try to get as close as possible to the storms center as safety permits.

 

 

The information gathered during flights will primarily be used for research purposes but since JMA is also working in the program it is apparent that it will also be used in directly nowcasting and forecasting typhoons tracks and strength.

 

Intensity forecasting is a bullet point for the agency since in recent years we have seen a surge in “Super Typhoons” in the western pacific.  Many people arguing it would have made a massive difference if there was recon during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

This is why the announcement of recon in to typhoons next year comes with such applause.