Daily update- Friday, June 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 JUN

The north region gets a bit of a break today as parts of the region heat up in a big way. Méiyǔ moisture and energy stay entrenched over the central region for another day while some spots in the south could see a few showers. The tropics are still vacant of anything threatening, but the trained eye can see signs of what’s ahead.

 NORTH

One weak storm system pushing off the Japanese Pacific coast is pulling away most of the moisture in the region, while another weak storm system moves through Mongolia and northern China. Most locations across the region will see a nice, warm day, with just a few scattered clouds in some spots. Temperatures are going to spike over portions of central China, with readings in the upper 30’s C (low 100’s F) and heat indices approaching hazardous levels.

CENTRAL

The East Asian monsoon continues to ravage parts of the central region as deep moisture remains and gets stirred up a bit by energy along a stalled frontal boundary that stretches from northeast to southeast along the entirety of the Chinese seaboard. There’s not a lot of energy present, so most storms that form today will be slow to move and rather explosive in development, especially over the higher terrain. Flooding rainfall and possible landslides could result from the heavy rain. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures down a bit for much of the region, with northern Vietnam being the lone exception, with scattered clouds and a hot afternoon ahead.

SOUTH

Today will be another ‘garden-variety’ day across the south region today. Ample moisture remains across the region, and when combined with the intense sunshine, will get lifted up to form clouds, showers, and thunderstorms, some occasionally heavy. Temperatures will be warm across the region, but no hazardous heat conditions are expected.

TROPICS

For yet another day, the tropics are mostly quiet and unimpressive. There is an area of very strong convergence located south of Guam. Normally I don’t talk much about these types of features, but I was impressed with the motion while observing on satellite loops this morning. It’s not expected to develop into anything significant, but it is indicative of the slowly-developing conditions in the NW Pacific, which once it gets started, will be kicking out some impressive systems later this year. For today, general convergence within the region will help bring about a chance for showers and thunderstorms for most locations, with areas to the north seeing lower probabilities.

Have a fruitful Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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