Weekend update – June 18/19, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 18/19 JUN

Less than a week away from the summer solstice, we find brutally hot conditions across parts of the north region, as the central regions sees another wet weekend with a chance for flooding rainfall. The south region will see another typical late-spring day, with lots of heat and pop-up thunderstorms, and the tropics remain quiet, but wet and unsettled.

NORTH

Things are starting to quiet down a bit across the north region, as recent surges from the north push the East Asian monsoon front to the south, allowing skies to clear a bit and temperatures to soar over parts of interior China. Readings near 39C (102F) can be expected over lowland interior China, with heat indices approaching 45C (113F) through the weekend. A weak pulse of energy moving into eastern portions of the region will help kick up a few more clouds and showers over these areas on Sunday, and the northern tier of locales in Mongolia, northeastern China and southeastern Russia will see a good chance for unsettled weather through the weekend as well. Some méiyǔ energy is present in the southernmost reaches of the region, and a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible in these locales through Sunday.

CENTRAL

Moisture continues to feed into the central region from the west and south, combining with energy from the north and west, generating what has been the East Asian monsoon front, or méiyǔ front, which has been lingering and undulating over the region for the past 2 months. More of the same can be expected this weekend, but with slightly less intensity for most spots. Flooding afternoon thunderstorms are still likely in parts of southeastern China as an old stalled frontal system acts as a focus for the moisture sliding through the region. Temperatures will spike over portions of southern China and northern Vietnam, where heat indices will approach dangerous levels at the peak of afternoon heating both days.

SOUTH

There’s not much to talk about across the south region as a rather typical and somewhat benign weather pattern has set up. Moisture continues to flow in from the east as the seasonal monsoon slowly continues a gradual shift. Repeated pulses of continental energy from the north continue to reinforce the west Pacific high, and continue a rather steady easterly feed across the Philippines. Indochina is in the midst of the monsoonal shift, with copious moisture being trucked in from the Indian Ocean helping provide an additional boost of moisture for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to feed on. Overall, it will be a warm and wet weekend across the south region, with most locations seeing a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

 TROPICS

The tropics remain quiet and unimpressive through the weekend. General convergence is present through the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) as a regular condition, and this convergence is helping force up the moisture into scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. It will be a great weekend for beach-goers and vacationers as warm and muggy conditions persist region-wide.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, CIMSS

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