Daily update- Monday, June 20, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 20 JUN

The north region dries out and warms up just a bit while clouds and showers continue to affect parts of the central region. Deep moisture in place across the south region will help enhance rainfall while the tropics keep slowly ramping up the activity.

 NORTH

A couple of weak weather systems will be passing through the north region today but most of the region should see a pretty nice start to the work week. Clouds and showers will affect some parts of Japan and easternmost China today as the easternmost system moves out. Another system in Mongolia will help sweep a few clouds and weak showers through parts of the north. The remainder of the region will see a pretty nice day, with dangerous heat building across parts of interior China, where temperatures will once again top out near 38C (100F), and will combine with the humidity to drive heat indices up to near 44C (111F).

CENTRAL

Méiyǔ energy and moisture are a bit scattered in the central region as a stalled frontal system lingers over the area, serving as a focal point for the energy and moisture that is rolling through. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of southeastern China, and some of the storms could produce locally flooding rainfall, especially over the higher terrain. Temperatures have settled into the typical summer regime, with very warm readings region-wide.

SOUTH

The moisture increased dramatically over the south region this past weekend, helping to increase rain and thunderstorms chances across the region. Most of the moisture and energy is located over Indochina, where copious moisture is getting lifted up to form afternoon thunderstorms. A complicated weather situation exists near the Philippines, where moisture is plentiful, but local orographic factors, as well as the mitigating effects of a nearby upper-level low pressure area, and we find most of the rainfall in the Philippines to be restricted to the mountainous provinces of Luzon. After several days of rainfall, these areas could see a chance for localized flooding and landslides if any more heavy rain moves through. Elsewhere across the south region, general tropical moisture and convergence will help kick up wet weather across many areas of the region, as temperatures warm up to summertime levels.

TROPICS

The tropics are slowly ramping up, as general convergence within the region increases, SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) and general atmospheric moisture slowly increases, and wind shear starts to relax a bit more. For today, there are a couple of areas of interest out there. One is 94W INVEST located in the South China Sea. The other is 95W INVEST, located to the south of Palau in Micronesia. The upper-level low just east of the Philippines will likely inhibit development of 95W, however, 94W MAY reach TD strength before moving into the Indian Ocean. Elsewhere, the widespread moisture and convergence will generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop across much of the region this afternoon, helping cool off what should be a warm afternoon.

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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