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NWPAC outlook, 21 JUN

The Summer Solstice brings about stormy weather for parts of the north region, as the central region gets a bit of a break for once. The south stays hot and muggy while the tropics finally give us something to talk about, and it looks like big news for Vietnam and southern China. 

NORTH

As the Summer Solstice arrives, we find méiyǔ energy slowly working to the north, now settled across much of the north region. Along with flooding rain in China, heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides have left at least 2 dead and 1 missing in Kumamoto prefecture, Western Japan. For more information on the stormy weather affecting Japan, please check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s earlier report here. Elsewhere across the region, a couple of weak storm systems will be the focus of the majority of the activity, with one system draped across Japan and stretching back into eastern China, and another, cooler, system impacting Mongolia from the northwest. Clouds, showers, and cooler temperatures are in store for Mongolia, northern China and southeastern Russia, while a few thunderstorms could pop up along the weather system stretched out over the eastern portion of the region. Temperatures will be reflective of the time of year, with summer-like reading expected throughout the region.

CENTRAL

Most of the central region will get a bit of a break today as the méiyǔ energy retreats to the north of the region. Ample moisture and daytime heating will still bring about a fair chance for showers and thunderstorms over some areas, but without the cooler air aloft, these storms will be a typical brand of summertime stuff, with some localized flooding and landslides possible in the heaviest downpours. Temperatures will be very warm across the region, with hot conditions expected over northern Vietnam and southern China.

SOUTH

It’s quite humid over the south region, as developments in the tropics bring about a significant increase in the moisture. A strong trough located along the western seaboard of the Philippines will be a focus for clouds and showers activity. However, with the seasonal monsoon still in a very weak state, this moisture is likely to stay offshore for the time being. A second trough, labeled at 94W INVEST, is moving into southern Vietnam where it will die out, and third system, 95W INVEST, is located near Palau, and is expected to increase rain chances across the Philippines in the coming days. I’ll have more on these tropical features in the next section of this report. For today, just about everyone can expect a shower or possible thunderstorm as the summer solstice sun lifts up the moisture. Temperatures will be summery warm across the region, but not exceptionally hot in any location.

TROPICS

As is the case many times in the tropics, we can go from nothing, to a couple of things, in just 48 hours. Let’s break it down for you:

94W INVEST

94W INVEST, 21 JUN

A trough of low pressure located in the South China Sea, just southeast of Vietnam, has been designated 94W INVEST by the NRL (Naval Research Laboratory). Surface pressures are still quite high, and upper-level conditions are simply not conducive to any significant development of this system. The I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) should drag this trough away and into the Indian Ocean over the next 2-3 days.

95W INVEST

95W INVEST, 21 JUN

What started out as the weaker of the two systems designated yesterday, 95W INVEST actually has the most potential for impact. Currently located near Palau Island in Micronesia, the system is expected to stay rather disorganized for the time being. However, computer forecast models are coming together in pretty good agreement, indicating this system will pass over the southern Philippines as a weak trough, or area of low pressure, and then quickly start to get “legs’ once entering the bathwater warm waters of the South China Sea. Most forecasts are showing gradual development into a formidable system as it tracks in the general direction of Hainan Island. Of course, it is still VERY early to start forecasting a system that doesn’t technically even exist, but as boring as it has been so far this season, we’re gonna talk about this one as much as we can.

Elsewhere across the tropics, general convergence within the I.T.C.Z. will lend a hand in the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, and just about everyone will see a chance for those as the heat peaks.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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