Archive | June 22, 2016

Death Toll Rises in Western Japan, Thousands Advised to Evacuate

At least six people have been killed an a University student has gone missing due to the floods this week in Western Japan.

The rain seen over the last several days in Kyushu in many areas is equal to the entire months worth of rainfall.

 

Reports topped 600mm in the hardest hit areas.

 

Wide spread evacuation advisories have been issued in wide swaths of Kyushu. Including in the Kumamoto area where 49 died in Aprils earthquakes. The earthquakes have also left the ground unstable leaving it prone to landslide in the event of additional aftershocks or heavy rainfall.

train

In Hiroshima a train became derailed forcing operations to suspend. About 120 passengers were on board when it went off the tracks.

 

In Ehime Prefecture Thursday morning 35 people have been ordered to evacuate after a collapse on a levee wall for a pond. A total of 15 homes were reported to be threatened in this specific instance.

 

72hr rainfall Outlook VIA ECMWF

72hr rainfall Outlook VIA ECMWF

Good news is the forecast calls for a short break in the rain Thursday before conditions start to worsen again heading in to the weekend.  Storms are expected to kick back up in Kumamoto on Friday , the city is already fairly prone for landslides so the additional rainfall will put the area at even higher risk. The image below is the landslide threat map as of Thursday Morning.

Landslide Threat Map

Landslide Threat Map

Tokyo will also see passing showers Thursday morning before clearing up until Friday as well. Thunderstorms and wide spread showers are possible Friday night and Saturday as the next wave of energy rolls across Japan along the rainy season front.

Rainy Season Front Dynamics

Finally there is good news as far as the “Baiu” front itself, it is lifting north and is breaking a part, this means the rainy season should start to come to an end in the near future, hopefully before the start of July across Japan and then soon after in China.

China has been devastated by the same front this past week. Read the latest report on whats been going on there. 

The question for some is what is the rainy season?

 

In the episode above of Westpacwx 101 we discuss the rainy season.

There are a few tips to remember if you are in any of the places that get this annual drencher. Every day ideas that you should keep in mind before heading out and about.

 

Tips for the Rainy Season

Tips for the Rainy Season

Lastly I do want to note the rainy season is all apart of a bigger process with the North East and South West Monsoons. The video below breaks down what both of them are and how they impact the seasons across East Asia and the Western Pacific.

Its not all gloom though in the rainy season, of of the symbols of the time is the Hydrangea, a flower that blooms in June and July during the peak of the wet season in Japan.


 

 

Tropical Development This Week Near the Philippines??

This years tropical season has been insanely slow, especially when you compare it to last year this time when we already had .. named storms and several super typhoons.

 

Numerical Guidance from specifically the American GFS model early this week seemed to indicate the chance of a typhoon developing but since then even that has backed off showing a low pressure area forming up in the South China Sea later this week.  You may have heard about this through a popular facebook page out of Okinawa that posted the model on Tuesday.

 

2015 vs 2016

A few things are working against the development of this storm though, for starters there is really no defined center of circulation.  The broad area of convection seen on the imagery below is actually the combination of two previous invest areas 94W and 95W that have now merged together.  Often when we get to much convection over a broad area the energy can not consolidate and thus it takes longer for a storm to develop.

Tropical Risk (1)

Second wind shear, easily visible on water vapor imagery there is a upper level low to the north east of the convection over the Philippines. This is going to keep it relatively weak and sheared off.

 

Third, it is currently over the Philippines and disorganized.  Fortunately for farmers in the area who need the rain but unfortunate for local areas that may be seeing flooding from this “blob” of convection.

 

The heaviest of the rainfall over the next 3 days will be in South West Luzon, Palawan and Western Visayas. Most of the Philippines will see some sort of rainfall though.

rainfall

With all of that said there is a chance this could track north west and get some organization together over the South China Sea. If this does happen due to the broad circulation and its attachment with the monsoon there is a good chance we would get a “monsoonal gyre” type of storm.  A broad circulation of convection that looks more like a tire on satellite imagery instead of a consolidated warm core low.

 

Time will tell though, the honest truth is this is a disorganized tropical area of convection over a series of islands with little model support to indicate its development.  At this time I would not expect a typhoon, nor a named storm for that matter this week.

LONG RANGE??

 

Eh, nothing really out there.. to much shear and dry air at this time. We are going to have to wait to at least the 1st or 2nd week of July for the chance of something developing. Stay safe guys!

 

 

Daily update- June 22, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 22 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 22 JUN

Stormy weather persists over parts of the north region as the heat turns up. The central region will see less rainfall, but are still under the gun for localized heavy showers. The south region is quite wet and warm, with hints of tropical troubles on the horizon. Speaking of the tropics, the two systems that we talked about yesterday are off the books, but development potential remains very much alive. 

NORTH

The East Asian monsoon has tracked to the north, bringing méiyǔ energy and moisture to the region. A stationary frontal system is draped over the southern half of the region, with moisture and energy located mostly in the east, affecting eastern China, Korea, southeastern Russia, and Japan. A shot of cooler air has moved into Mongolia, where temperatures have stayed much lower than normal. The colder air is helping squeeze out a few showers across the country. Intense heat will be in place over interior central China, where clear skies will allow the sunshine to heat things up to near 39C (102F) today, forcing heat indices upwards to near 45C (113F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

16

4 61 39

Scattered showers likely

Vladivostok

18

12 64 54

Scattered showers likely

Beijing

35

22 95 72

Mostly fair & HOT

Seoul

33

22 91 72

Scattered showers likely

Tokyo

26

22 79 72

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

39

24 102 75

Mostly fair & VERY HOT

Shanghai

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

As the méiyǔ energy has left the region, it leaves behind very warm temperatures and plentiful moisture, so, although there are no large-scale disturbances in the air to create much, just the normal, daily run of convective-type thunderstorms are on the menu for many. Southern China could use some relief, as record rainfall has caused extensive damage and loss of life in parts of the country. For more on these developments, please check out the earlier report by Meteorologist Robert Speta here. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region, as the summer season settles in.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

16 72 61

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Taipei

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms possible

Naha

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

The south region has seen a huge increase in the moisture, thanks to surges coming into the region from the tropical regions to the east and west. The South China Sea is being watched very closely, as computer forecast models continue to show development of a tropical system here later this week. I’ll have more on this in the next section. For today, just about everyone can expect a chance of showers or thunderstorms as the afternoon heating peaks. Temperatures in the south region will also be near seasonal levels, and the showers should bring some welcome relief from the heat.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Mostly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

There is a great deal of unsettled weather in the tropics, and according to computer forecast models, it’s all going to come together somewhere in the South China Sea within the next 3 days. The two systems that were designated on Monday, 94W and 95W INVESTS, have been taken off the books at J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), but cloudiness and general convergence remain. Model runs are consistent in showing development of a system east of Vietnam by the weekend. Current indications by the models are that this system will strengthen slightly and then move into southeastern Asia somewhere near the Vietnam/China border. We will keep you posted. Elsewhere, the aforementioned convergence throughout the region will bring about a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the afternoon sun lifts the moisture up and wrings out a few showers in spots.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

33

28 91 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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