This years tropical season has been insanely slow, especially when you compare it to last year this time when we already had .. named storms and several super typhoons.
Numerical Guidance from specifically the American GFS model early this week seemed to indicate the chance of a typhoon developing but since then even that has backed off showing a low pressure area forming up in the South China Sea later this week. You may have heard about this through a popular facebook page out of Okinawa that posted the model on Tuesday.
A few things are working against the development of this storm though, for starters there is really no defined center of circulation. The broad area of convection seen on the imagery below is actually the combination of two previous invest areas 94W and 95W that have now merged together. Often when we get to much convection over a broad area the energy can not consolidate and thus it takes longer for a storm to develop.
Second wind shear, easily visible on water vapor imagery there is a upper level low to the north east of the convection over the Philippines. This is going to keep it relatively weak and sheared off.
Third, it is currently over the Philippines and disorganized. Fortunately for farmers in the area who need the rain but unfortunate for local areas that may be seeing flooding from this “blob” of convection.
The heaviest of the rainfall over the next 3 days will be in South West Luzon, Palawan and Western Visayas. Most of the Philippines will see some sort of rainfall though.
With all of that said there is a chance this could track north west and get some organization together over the South China Sea. If this does happen due to the broad circulation and its attachment with the monsoon there is a good chance we would get a “monsoonal gyre” type of storm. A broad circulation of convection that looks more like a tire on satellite imagery instead of a consolidated warm core low.
Time will tell though, the honest truth is this is a disorganized tropical area of convection over a series of islands with little model support to indicate its development. At this time I would not expect a typhoon, nor a named storm for that matter this week.
Eh, nothing really out there.. to much shear and dry air at this time. We are going to have to wait to at least the 1st or 2nd week of July for the chance of something developing. Stay safe guys!