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Daily update- Thursday, June 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 23 JUN

Stormy weather settles in across parts of the north region as the central region sees a much-deserved break from the widespread rainfall. The south region and the tropics are sharing the news today as everyone in Southeast Asia is watching the development of a tropical ‘thingie’ in the South China Sea.

 NORTH

Méiyǔ moisture and energy continue to roll across parts of the north region, primarily affecting the southern and eastern locales. Clouds and patches of rain are likely from eastern China, Korea, and Japan as a stalled frontal system undulates over the general area. Another weak storm system is moving into the region from the north, but it’s not going to make it very far to the south as it stirs up general cloudiness and scattered showers in Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia. The biggest news over the past 24 hours may very well be the huge temperature swing in central China, whereas highs reached near 40C (104F) yesterday, today’s high temperature will struggle to reach 24C (75F) as the clouds and rain hold back the intense summer sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

20

6 68 43

Scattered showers likely

Vladivostok

17

12 63 54

Scattered showers likely

Beijing

34

21 93 70

Partly cloudy

Seoul

31

21 88 70

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

25

21 77 70

Periods of rain

Xi’an

24

19 75 66

Periods of rain

Shanghai

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms possible

 

CENTRAL

Although scattered clouds and showers will pop up at the peak of afternoon heating today, the widespread rainfall and flooding threat is diminishing across the central region for the time being. There will be a chance for a stray showers or thunderstorms as temperatures climb to seasonal summertime highs. All the ample moisture needs is a bit of a lift to generate the rain, and the afternoon sun will be all too happy to oblige.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

17 75 63

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

33

28 91 82

Mostly fair

Taipei

34

27 93 81

Thunderstorms possible

Naha

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

The south region is sharing the news with the tropics today, and will likely do so for the next several days, as 96W INVEST gets cranked up in the South China Sea. Clouds and showers associated with this developing system will affect parts of the Philippines and Vietnam, as it gets better organized and contracts a bit over the next 48 hours. I’ll have more on this developing situation in the TROPICS section of this report. Elsewhere, general tropical moisture and cloudiness will be in place over the entire region, where afternoon clouds and thunderstorms will pop up and make things a bit wetter and cooler at the peak of afternoon heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

The tropics have been showing gradual signs of life over the past couple of weeks, and especially over the past 5 days, as waves of energy get a little stronger with each passing day. Finally, after a long season of ‘boredom’, as we weather-watchers refer to it, we have a bona-fide system in the early stages of development in the South China Sea:

96W INVEST

96W INVEST, 23 JUN, 0800PST

96W INVEST, 23 JUN, 0800PST

At 6:00 am PST. The NRL placed the center of the newly-developing 96W INVEST near 12.2N, 118.5E, or about 185km (115mi) WNW of Coron, Palawan, Philippines. The system is drifting to the NW as it slowly gets better organized. Long-range computer forecast models have been rather consistent on the general development and track of this system for the past 3 days. However, the GFS model has backed off of the potential for typhoon development, and rather, is showing more of a monsoon gyre developing in the South China Sea, that will drift slowly in the general direction of the Vietnam/China border. At this time, it’s still too early to say how this will pan out, but it is safe to say that many locations in the south region, and especially southeastern China and northern Vietnam, need to stay alerted to developments of this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics, general convergence is strong over the region, and we may very well see a significant uptick in activity now that we are entering the prime formation period of the season. Otherwise, most locations will see a daily dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets lifted up into the cooler climes of the atmosphere by the latent heat over the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms possible

Yap

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a thoughtful Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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