Archive | June 24, 2016

Multiple Tropical Lows Bring Heavy Rainfall Threats For Vietnam and Philippines Possible Nepartak

The tropics look like a pan of oil that has been lit on fire today with wide spread convection being seen from Yap and Palau through the South China sea stretching across the Philippines.

 

IR / VIS SAT

The thing is at least at this time this is a uncontrolled burn with wide spread monsoonal storms concentrated near two low pressure areas. A tropical depression (invest 96w) in the South China Sea and another invest area which could become a TD over Yap and Palau.

 

First we start with our Tropical Depression, officially this is expected to become a tropical storm in the next 24hrs as it tracks north towards Vietnam and Southern China.  Before this happens it will need to re-organize a little since as of Friday morning wind shear and multiple low level vorticies has turned this once decent looking TD in to a mess of scrambled eggs.

Most numerical guidance also continues to struggle on the handling of this storm, which further supports my ideas from yesterday, that is that this Tropical low regardless on if it becomes a named storm or not will be more of a Monsoonal Gyre which are notorious for bringing wide spread long lasting rainfall to locations they come near.  Thus heavy rainfall is to be expected in Vietnam and eventually China this weekend in to early next week.  For those in Hong Kong I wouldn’t worry as much about this though as our friends to the South as it does look like this low will be a very slow moving storm and Hong Kong remains just north of the extent of the Monsoonal rains.

 

72hr Rainfall Outlook

72hr Rainfall Outlook

For the Philippines though this could spell some long lasting intense rainfall heading through the weekend. Wide

IR / VIS SAT

spread swaths of Southern Luzon Visayas and Mindanao could see over 50mm of rainfall but parts of Visayas including the Cebu area might top 200mm this weekend. This in short means there is the chance of river flooding and landslides.

 

This is a combination of the TD and the Invest area now over Yap and Palau. That area already is bringing Thunderstorm alerts and Prolonged rainfall warnings for those islands as it slowly tracks over head over the next 48hrs carrying an abundance of moisture with it. Like a giant water balloon this will track west towards the Philippines bringing rainfall with it as well.

outlook

Can we see a Typhoon?

 

As I wouldn’t go ruling that out I would say there is an abundance of disorganized convection here which can put strain on developing storms as the energy in the area is unable to consolidate, still though lets continue to watch both areas, for those in the Philippines and Vietnam the threat of heavy rain and the chance of flooding.

 

LONG RANGE?

 

After this burst of activity models do not show much, but the yearly outlook and climatology suggest that things should start to pick up quickly as we head in to July. So right now do not trust long range models so much and keep a open mind for pending storms.
Some good news maybe not for these storms but in the near future may be happening.

For those who track and forecast storms in the western pacific there is a extra challenge in doing so compared to our friends in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic and that is a lack of aircraft recon.

Consistent typhoon reconnaissance ended nearly 30 years ago in 1987 with the closing of the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron base in Guam.

 

The squadron was responsible for some of the lowest official pressure readings in history in a tropical cyclone and was key in forecasting the storms for a half a century.

 

In 2010 a hurricane hunter ventured in to the western pacific to study the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific or “ITOP”.   The last flight to punch a eye wall in the Western Pacific was on October 18th 2010.

 

Taiwan still does flights on a irregular basis around storms to get steering flow information but never near the storms core.

aircraft

This could be changing in the near future though thanks to a Japanese Research team from Nagoya University, the University of the Ryukus and the Japan Meteorological Agency.

 

They have purchased a Lear Jet and equipped it with observational equipment including drop sondes. These are a type of equipment that are launched from the bottom of aircraft to get a gauge of the atmosphere inside a typhoon.

 

Flights are expected to start in 2017 and continue through 2020 with hopes of extending if funding remains suitable.

 

The Jet is likely to be stationed in Okinawa in southern Japan a location that is hit often several times a year by typhoons.

 

Due to the small size of the aircraft compared to its cousin the C-130 hurricane hunters it may not be able to punch the eye wall on significant typhoons, but one of the researchers during a interview with NHK TV stated they will try to get as close as possible to the storms center as safety permits.

 

 

The information gathered during flights will primarily be used for research purposes but since JMA is also working in the program it is apparent that it will also be used in directly nowcasting and forecasting typhoons tracks and strength.

 

Intensity forecasting is a bullet point for the agency since in recent years we have seen a surge in “Super Typhoons” in the western pacific.  Many people arguing it would have made a massive difference if there was recon during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

This is why the announcement of recon in to typhoons next year comes with such applause.

Daily update- Friday, June 24, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 24 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 24 JUN

Deadly storms slam the north region while the activity picks up a bit across the central region. Once again, tropical troubles are on the menu for the south as the tropics ramp up in a big way. 

NORTH

Summer storms slammed parts of eastern China yesterday, with a rare tornado outbreak documented in northern Jiangsu, near Shanghai, causing 51 deaths and many injured. For more details on this historic weather event, check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s full report here. Stormy weather could be on schedule today as well, as the reason for the inclement conditions, méiyǔ energy and moisture firing up along a stalled frontal boundary, remain over the area. From southeastern Russia, extending in a southwesterly sweeping arc across Japan to eastern China, just about everyone will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. To the west, the front has cleared things out a bit, so temperatures warm up in a big under mostly sunny skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

23

9 73 48

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

18

13 64 55

Periods of rain

Beijing

31

19 88 66

Mostly fair

Seoul

27

18 81 64

Periods of rain

Tokyo

25

22 77 72

Periods of rain

Xi’an

32

20 90 68

Mostly fair

Shanghai

31

21 88 70

Thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see more activity today, as a frontal system to the north undulates and sags far enough to the south to stir things up across portions of southeastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands. Plentiful moisture will enhance thunderstorm possibilities across southern China and northern Vietnam as well as the afternoon sun lifts it up high into the cooler atmosphere. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the entire region, with clouds and showers holding down temperatures a bit in the high country of south-central China.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

16 75 61

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

33

28 91 82

Mostly fair

Taipei

33

27 91 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Residents of the south region are watching the tropics, as a couple of systems pop up and give cause for a bit of alarm. One system, TD96W INVEST, is slowly spinning up in the South China Sea, east of Vietnam. Current forecast models have backed off of organizing this system due to the stronger influences of 97W, which is located near Palau Island, to the east of the Philippines. I’ll have more specific details on the tropical systems in the next section of this report. Elsewhere across the south region, copious tropical moisture is entrenched over the region, and the warm summer sunshine is beaming on down, helping lift this moisture into the sky and squeeze out showers and thunderstorms. Just about everyone will see a good chance for afternoon rain, so be sure to carry your umbrellas.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

30

25 86 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

34

23 93 73

Partly cloudy

Singapore

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

In the tropics, one system gains notoriety as another takes over the main stage in the upcoming days ahead. Behold the saga of 96W and 97W INVEST:

96W INVEST 

96W, 24 JUN

96W, 24 JUN

96W INVEST was designated a Tropical Depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) yesterday afternoon. Indeed, the low-level circulation center was easily captured on ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) satellite-observed wind readings just prior to designation. According to the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory), at 8:00 am PST, the center of TD96W INVEST was located near 13.8N, 116.5E, or, about 491km (305mi) WSW of Manila, Philippines. The system is moving to the WNW at about 10 kph. Over the past 24 hours, 96W has lost some of its gusto, indications of the shifting focus of tropical energy in the region, overall. The latest computer forecast models show this system to stall a bit in the South China Sea, then weaken and get absorbed by the incoming 97W, which I will cover next.

 97W INVEST

97W, 24 JUN

97W, 24 JUN

97W INVEST was declared by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) this morning as an area of clouds and showers in Micronesia gets wound up a bit. Early this morning, the system was located near 5.2N, 141.5E, or, about 807km (502mi) east-southeast of Koror, Palau, Micronesia. This system is moving slowly to the west-northwest and is slowly getting better organized. This system looks to be the real focus, as computer forecast models now indicate that this area will slowly strengthen, while moving in the general direction of the Philippines, and is expected to cross the archipelago through Sunday and Monday, and emerge in the South China Sea, where it will apparently merge with the remnants of what is left of TD96W INVEST, before getting a bit better organized on its way to the Asian mainland coastal areas.

For a video on the current tropical situation, please check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s report here.

The remainder of the tropics will see a good chance for typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the daytime heating lifts up the ample moisture.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a far-out Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com