Daily update- Friday, June 24, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 24 JUN

Deadly storms slam the north region while the activity picks up a bit across the central region. Once again, tropical troubles are on the menu for the south as the tropics ramp up in a big way. 

NORTH

Summer storms slammed parts of eastern China yesterday, with a rare tornado outbreak documented in northern Jiangsu, near Shanghai, causing 51 deaths and many injured. For more details on this historic weather event, check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s full report here. Stormy weather could be on schedule today as well, as the reason for the inclement conditions, méiyǔ energy and moisture firing up along a stalled frontal boundary, remain over the area. From southeastern Russia, extending in a southwesterly sweeping arc across Japan to eastern China, just about everyone will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. To the west, the front has cleared things out a bit, so temperatures warm up in a big under mostly sunny skies.

CENTRAL

The central region will see more activity today, as a frontal system to the north undulates and sags far enough to the south to stir things up across portions of southeastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands. Plentiful moisture will enhance thunderstorm possibilities across southern China and northern Vietnam as well as the afternoon sun lifts it up high into the cooler atmosphere. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the entire region, with clouds and showers holding down temperatures a bit in the high country of south-central China.

SOUTH

Residents of the south region are watching the tropics, as a couple of systems pop up and give cause for a bit of alarm. One system, TD96W INVEST, is slowly spinning up in the South China Sea, east of Vietnam. Current forecast models have backed off of organizing this system due to the stronger influences of 97W, which is located near Palau Island, to the east of the Philippines. I’ll have more specific details on the tropical systems in the next section of this report. Elsewhere across the south region, copious tropical moisture is entrenched over the region, and the warm summer sunshine is beaming on down, helping lift this moisture into the sky and squeeze out showers and thunderstorms. Just about everyone will see a good chance for afternoon rain, so be sure to carry your umbrellas.

TROPICS

In the tropics, one system gains notoriety as another takes over the main stage in the upcoming days ahead. Behold the saga of 96W and 97W INVEST:

96W INVEST 

96W, 24 JUN

96W INVEST was designated a Tropical Depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) yesterday afternoon. Indeed, the low-level circulation center was easily captured on ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) satellite-observed wind readings just prior to designation. According to the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory), at 8:00 am PST, the center of TD96W INVEST was located near 13.8N, 116.5E, or, about 491km (305mi) WSW of Manila, Philippines. The system is moving to the WNW at about 10 kph. Over the past 24 hours, 96W has lost some of its gusto, indications of the shifting focus of tropical energy in the region, overall. The latest computer forecast models show this system to stall a bit in the South China Sea, then weaken and get absorbed by the incoming 97W, which I will cover next.

 97W INVEST

97W, 24 JUN

97W INVEST was declared by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) this morning as an area of clouds and showers in Micronesia gets wound up a bit. Early this morning, the system was located near 5.2N, 141.5E, or, about 807km (502mi) east-southeast of Koror, Palau, Micronesia. This system is moving slowly to the west-northwest and is slowly getting better organized. This system looks to be the real focus, as computer forecast models now indicate that this area will slowly strengthen, while moving in the general direction of the Philippines, and is expected to cross the archipelago through Sunday and Monday, and emerge in the South China Sea, where it will apparently merge with the remnants of what is left of TD96W INVEST, before getting a bit better organized on its way to the Asian mainland coastal areas.

For a video on the current tropical situation, please check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s report here.

The remainder of the tropics will see a good chance for typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the daytime heating lifts up the ample moisture.

Have a far-out Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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