Weekend update- June 25/26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26/26, JUN

The weekend will see a quitter weather regime for the north region as méiyǔ energy and moisture sag down into the central region, where the showers and thunderstorms will once again plague most of the residents. The south region is still dealing with the developments in the tropics, which have really ramped up in action in recent days.

NORTH

A fairly strong storm system is pushing through northern Japan today, and taking the clouds and showers away with it as it presses east and south. The storm system is currently located in southeastern Russia, with a front that extends to the southwest in a wide, sweeping arc, taking in most of Japan and eastern China. For today, clouds and showers are likely along the front in the north, and in the south, where it will combine with méiyǔ moisture to elevate convection a bit. Most of Japan will see considerable cloudiness, but rainfall will be very widely scattered. On Sunday, things clear out nicely, as everyone gets a break for the rain. Beijing will see a hot weekend, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures up near 37C (99F) and heat indices approaching 42C (108F).

CENTRAL

Unfortunately for the central region, when the north region clears out, they get a serving of moisture and energy as the méiyǔ front sags southward. Such is the case this weekend, with lots of tropical moisture in place, more moisture and energy being pumped in from the west and south by the East Asian monsoon, and a sagging frontal system helping to activate both contributors to bring about a chance for heavy rain, localized flooding, and possible landslides, especially in the higher terrain. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region, with lower readings where the clouds and showers are heaviest.

SOUTH

Tropical troubles are the main concern for residents and visitors in the south region, as things get quite busy out over the open waters of the region. I will have the particulars on these developments in the ‘Tropics’ section of this report. For the sake of this section, suffice it to say that the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China need to pay close attention to these tropical weather developments. In the meantime, plentiful moisture is well entrenched over the region as we roll through the early days of summer. Daytime heating will help lift this moisture up and squeeze out showers and thunderstorms for many locations in the region through Sunday.

TROPICS

And then there were three…

With the advent of the wet phase of the M.J.O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) over the region during the past 4 or 5 days, we have seen a drastic uptick in tropical moisture and convergence within the region. The increase and moisture has helped create an overall climatological improvement, with a large, deep, monsoonal trough setting up over the South China Sea and the Philippines, extending east into parts of Micronesia. This general climatological upswing has helped generate not one, not two, but three disturbances in the Western Pacific and South China Sea that we are monitoring.

TD96W INVEST 

96W INVEST, 25, JUN

TD96W INVEST sprang up in the South China Sea a few days ago, and although it was looking pretty promising at first, even being declared a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency), it has seen hard times befall it in terms of environmental support. Today, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) places TD96W INVEST near 14.9N, 112.3E, or about 456km (283mi) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. The system is drifting about erratically in the South China Sea as the atmosphere adjusts and figures out what it wants to do. The official forecast track is showing no significant movement or development, and in fact, dissipation may be in the cards for this system as stronger energy moves in from the southeast and takes over.

 97W INVEST 

97W INVEST, 25, JUN

97W INVEST is suffering the same fate as 96W, but on the opposite end of the aforementioned trough. As with 96W a few days ago, 97W looked very healthy yesterday, as a swirl of convergent energy rolled through the deep moisture near Palau Island. However, the swirl seems to be racing westward, and it’s leaving the moisture behind to become part of something else, kind of. Today, the N.R.L. places the center of 97W INVEST near 6.0N, 139.0E, or about 520km (323mi) east-southeast of Koror, Palau, Micronesia. Earlier forecasts hinted that this system would form into something interesting as it moved across the Philippines late this weekend. Now, it appears that the energy has shifted to the east, and left the moisture behind to get sucked into whatever our newest member of the NWPAC disturbance club: 98W INVEST

98W INVEST

98W INVEST, 25, JUN

Computer forecast models have been fairly consistent for days, showing increased activity in the region, and development of something that will eventually affect parts of the Asian mainland. The two previously mentioned systems were the heirs-apparent of this coming development, but both of them are in the process of fizzling out. Many times, the overall notion of computer models gets realized, but not always quite the way the models envision it. This seems to be the case with the formation of the latest disturbance, 98W INVEST. Today, the N.R.L. places the center of 98W INVEST near 7.5N, 128.3E, or about 230km (143mi) east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur, Philippines, moving in a general west-northwesterly direction.

98W is really the energetic swirl from what is 97W, as it zoomed ahead in some sort of strange, atmospheric flow phenomenon, which is actually quite common given the environmental conditions. 98W and 97W are really the dual ends of a relatively short easterly wave that is expected to drift through the Philippines this weekend. Computer forecast models are backing off of developing any very strong systems, but the tendency remains for the models, especially G.F.S. (Global Forecasting System), to show all of this moisture and energy converging near where 96W is right now, to slowly spin and work its way to the north-northwest, more as a monsoonal gyre type system, impacting the Asian mainland sometime late next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, abundant moisture and ample daytime heating will help generate plenty of scattered clouds and a few thunderstorms. Overall, most locations should see a relatively uneventful weekend.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, CIMSS

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