Daily update- Monday, June 27, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 27 JUN

NWPAC outlook, 27 JUN

Much of the north region quiets down as the East Asian monsoon gets pushed into the central region. The south region is dealing with a good deal of tropical weather as the tropic region itself continues to show significant signs of life.

 NORTH

A couple of weak storm systems will work through the north region today, bringing some cloudiness to parts of Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia. There’s not much energy or moisture associated with these systems as they are mostly dry lines sweeping across the land. Méiyǔ moisture and energy hangs in farther to the south, where eastern China will see a good chance of clouds and rain this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonably warm today, but no significant heat will be present.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

20

9 68 48

Thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

21

13 70 55

Partly cloudy

Beijing

32

19 90 66

Partly cloudy

Seoul

29

18 84 64

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

26

21 79 70

Mostly fair

Xi’an

34

21 93 70

Mostly fair

Shanghai

25

22 77 72

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Méiyǔ moisture and energy associated with the East Asian monsoon is sagging across parts of the central region today, combining with a stalled frontal boundary over southeastern China to help stir up considerable cloudiness and showers, especially across the region’s eastern islands, and to the south across southern China and northern Vietnam. Energy with the front is quite weak, so the storms that pop up will be much more indicative of a typical summer rainfall regime, where storms could produce some localized flooding with a risk for landslides in the higher terrain. Temperatures will be quite warm across the region, with the hottest weather located over Taiwan.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

27

17 81 63

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

33

28 91 82

Partly cloudy

Taipei

35

27 95 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Residents of the south will continue to deal with tropical moisture and energy, thanks to a very complex weather scenario in place. What was once TD 96W has evolved into a large monsoon gyre. This gyre is helping to pump in moisture to most of Indochina, with flooding rain for parts of the south. In addition, a newly-formed tropical depression, 97W, also named “Ambo” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, tracked quickly across the northern part of the archipelago yesterday and has emerged out into the open waters of the South China Sea, where it is expected to continue tracking to the west-northwest and impact portions of the Asian mainland later this week. Clouds and afternoon showers are likely for most locations across the region, and afternoon highs will settle in at near-normal levels, with lower readings where the rain falls most.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

29

25 84 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

The tropics have really picked up over the past 7 days, and since that time, we have had three areas of investigation, two tropical depressions, and big ol’ fat monsoon gyre as a reward. Let’s talk about all of this, with 97W/TD “Ambo” taking center stage:

97W/TD “Ambo”

97W got its act together for a short while this past weekend, absorbing energy and moisture from what was 98W, and sliding up into the ‘danger zone’, the Philippine Sea. As the system moved into a more favorable area for development, it did not disappoint, spinning up and getting a bit better organized. However, it was being pushed along by some strong easterly winds, so it was a bit off balance as it quickly moved across the open waters of the Pacific and made a beeline for the Philippine coast, making landfall last night. As of this writing, there have been no received reports of damage or casualties, which makes perfect sense as this storm was anything but dangerous. Now the leftover circulation is back out over open water in the South China Sea, where water temperatures are quite warm, and general low pressure remains in the form of a monsoon gyre near Vietnam. Current forecasts show this remnant low pressure area to continue to track to the west-northwest and impact the Asian mainland later this week as a minimal system.

The remainder of the tropic region is quite busy, as a line of convergent energy extends almost unbroken, from Micronesia all the way east into the Marshall Islands. Forecast models are not showing any development out here, but it’s just too active to discount anything at this point. In the meantime, most locations will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with warm summery temperatures throughout.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

28

23 82 73

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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