Daily update- Tuesday, June 28, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 28 JUN

Summer settles into parts of the north region as méiyǔ energy sags to the south. Tropical moisture moves into the central region and activates along the méiyǔ front, bringing more flooding rainfall. Tropical moisture and energy plague much of the south region as well, while the tropics continue to show signs of seasonal maturation. 

NORTH

A couple of storm systems are still affecting much of the north region, with a slow-moving system across Japan acting as a focusing mechanism for méiyǔ moisture, and another system over northern China bringing clouds and showers to a few spots. The latter storm will fire off a few thunderstorms as it slams into the very warm and moist air settled in over eastern parts of the continent. The former system will continue to linger across the region today, as it has for the past couple of days, and act as source for clouds and rain from Japan, southwest into eastern China. Hot temperatures are in place over central China, where sunny skies will allow the summer sunshine to really heat things up.

CENTRAL

Deep tropical moisture is moving into the central region, courtesy of a deep monsoonal gyre to the south over the South China Sea, helping to pump in copious base moisture, and bringing in the remnant energy and moisture from the system formerly known as 97W. Just about everyone in southeast China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu islands will see a round off thunderstorms this afternoon. Southeastern China, including Hong Kong will see more influence from tropical remnants, while locations to the north will see a stalled frontal boundary combine with this incoming moisture and fire off some storms. Locally heavy rainfall with localized flooding, and possible landslides in the higher elevations, are once again on the list of risks today throughout much of southeastern Asia. The one exception will be parts of extreme southern China and northern Indochina, where northerly flow on the west side of the monsoon low to the south will bring in slightly drier air as it moves down into the region from the higher elevations to the north.

SOUTH

After suffering from the El Nino-induced drought for well over 9 months, much of the south region is seeing much-welcome relief as tropical moisture continues to dominate the region. A large monsoonal low pressure area continues to spin in the South China Sea, just east of Vietnam. This low is not really a tropical feature, but is more a multi-level feature brought about by the shifting global environment from El Nino to La Nina, a process that will take several more months to finish. This monsoonal low is doing just what one of these features does – help pull in tropical moisture from the southern latitudes up into locations farther north. This low also helped shear 97W apart after it crossed the Philippines, and it steered 97W’s remnants away from the original forecasted point of landfall near Hainan, up to a messy entry near Hong Kong. Another typical summer day will take place for residents of the south region, as the deep moisture gets a lift from the hot afternoon sun to squeeze out showers and occasional thunderstorms, with the activity especially heavy over parts of southern Indochina.

TROPICS

With the remnants of 97W moving into southeastern China today, we turn our attention back to the east, where lots of general convergence is making the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) looks like a pot of boiling soup on satellite loops. There are currently no organized areas of concern out there, and long-range computer forecast models are showing no hint of development in the mid-term. The monsoonal low over the South China Sea will continue to spin and drag lots of moisture into the southern portions of Indochina. Everyone else will see a decent chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm as summer keeps rolling right along.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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