Daily update- Wednesday, June 29, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29 JUN

Clouds and showers affect parts of the north region as the central region stays wet as well, all thanks to méiyǔ moisture and energy that undulates across both regions. Tropical moisture remains over the south region as summer heat continues to bear down, and the latest series of weak disturbances in the tropics have pulled much of the excess moisture up into the Asian continent and quieted things down a bit across the region. 

NORTH

A lingering frontal system draped across the eastern one-third of the north region is once again acting as a focusing mechanism for méiyǔ moisture and energy. Clouds, showers, and even a few thunderstorms will pop up along the front this afternoon from Japan, to the southwest across the Korean peninsula and parts of eastern China. Another weak storm system is rolling through Mongolia stirring up some clouds and showers across much of the northern tier of the region, while keeping temperatures a bit lower. It will be another torrid day across parts of central China, as temperatures peak near 39C (102F) and heat indices approach 45C (113F).

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture has moved into the central region thanks to the remnants of 97W, which moved inland yesterday and is adding more fuel to the already incendiary atmospheric situation with the presence of a stalled frontal boundary, which has helped drag down méiyǔ energy from the north and additional moisture from the southwest. All of this translates into a very rainy day across the entirety of the central region, with locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in some areas. Flooding and landslides are a risk, especially in higher elevations of southeastern China, where this season’s monsoon has had the most impact. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region, with most readings held back just a bit by the extensive region-wide cloud-cover.

SOUTH

Tropical moisture is well established over much of the south region, as a series of recent disturbances have moved into and through the region. The latest system, 97W, is no longer an issue for the south region, and the large monsoon gyre that has been spinning almost stationary over the eastern South China Sea for the past 5 days has finally drifted to the west over land. Much of southern Indochina will continue to be affected by moisture being pulled in from the Indian Ocean by this gyre, but, its influence to the eastern parts of the region will wane steadily over the next day or so. The gyre has pulled much of the moisture out of the most southerly of locations within the region, so while much of Indochina and the Philippines will see an afternoon with showers and occasional storms, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and parts of Indonesia will stay mostly dry with lots of sunshine.

TROPICS

Five days ago, there were more swirls in the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) than one could keep up with. Just like ‘that’, the activity dies down, and the tropics return to a more benign condition. The latest series of disturbances, which include 97W and the large, nearly-stationary monsoon gyre in the South China Sea, have served to return a bit of balance to the region as the skies clear and the convergence dies down a bit. Most locations will see a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms, as a result of the standard atmospheric situation, but there are no specific areas of concern to watch as this time.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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