Archive | June, 2016

Scattered Showers Continue Following Tropical Depression Ambo , Monday Outlook

storm

Would you like some bacon with your scrambled eggs this morning? Tropical Depression Ambo has fallen apart just as swiftly as it organized this past weekend. At this time the Low level center is hard to find with mainly scattered 13483062_1205186802849076_5287284331149716994_othunderstorms circulation around the low across the Philippines Monday morning. This could shortly re-organize through mid-week but for the most part expect the energy from Ambo to be drawn in to the monsoonal gyre near Vietnam triggering heavy rainfall across SE Asia.

 

That will be the biggest threat going ahead is the wide spread rainfall from the low in the South China Sea and our now Tropical Depression.

 

According to JMA the TD is expected to become a tropical storm but to be honest I would be surprised if this becomes our first named storm of the year per the WMO. There would need to be a lot more organization taking place which could be hard due to an increase in vertical wind shear ahead of the storm.

 

 

Tropical Depression Ambo Forms Near Luzon / Sunday Afternoon Outlook

The Philippine sea effect strikes again with the rapid development of tropical depression Ambo this Sunday the 26th of June. The TD was a area of low pressure we have been watching for several days now but during Sunday morning it swiftly organized gaining an abundance of convection while setting up banding mostly on its southern flank.

PAGASA STORM TRACK

Overall the forecast has changed little though with the rain continuing to be the biggest threat from this storm system. Some areas of Visayas and Luzon could see well over 200mm of total precipation bringing in the threat of flooding and landslides.

72

PAGASA put out the following warning on it.

PAGASA STORM WARNING

•Estimated rainfall amount is from 2.5 – 10 mm per hour (moderate-heavy) within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Likewise, occasional moderate to heavy rains is expected over Central Luzon, CALABARZON and Bicol Region beginning today.
•TD AMBO is expected to weaken after making landfall over Aurora province tomorrow.
•Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS#1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions. 

 

 

 

Weekend update- June 25/26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26/26, JUN

NWPAC outlook, 26/26, JUN

The weekend will see a quitter weather regime for the north region as méiyǔ energy and moisture sag down into the central region, where the showers and thunderstorms will once again plague most of the residents. The south region is still dealing with the developments in the tropics, which have really ramped up in action in recent days.

NORTH

A fairly strong storm system is pushing through northern Japan today, and taking the clouds and showers away with it as it presses east and south. The storm system is currently located in southeastern Russia, with a front that extends to the southwest in a wide, sweeping arc, taking in most of Japan and eastern China. For today, clouds and showers are likely along the front in the north, and in the south, where it will combine with méiyǔ moisture to elevate convection a bit. Most of Japan will see considerable cloudiness, but rainfall will be very widely scattered. On Sunday, things clear out nicely, as everyone gets a break for the rain. Beijing will see a hot weekend, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures up near 37C (99F) and heat indices approaching 42C (108F).

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar

28

82 22 72 Partly cloudy

Cloudy

Vladivostok

20

68 23 73 Periods of rain

Partly cloudy

Beijing

36

97 37 99 Mostly fair&HOT

Mostly fair&HOT

Seoul

26

79 29 84 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Tokyo

28

82 26 79 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

31

88 29 84 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

23

73 26 79 Periods of rain

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

Unfortunately for the central region, when the north region clears out, they get a serving of moisture and energy as the méiyǔ front sags southward. Such is the case this weekend, with lots of tropical moisture in place, more moisture and energy being pumped in from the west and south by the East Asian monsoon, and a sagging frontal system helping to activate both contributors to bring about a chance for heavy rain, localized flooding, and possible landslides, especially in the higher terrain. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region, with lower readings where the clouds and showers are heaviest.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

24

75 26 79 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

Hong Kong

33

91 32 90 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Taipei

34

93 33 91 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Naha

31

88 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Hanoi

34

93 34 93 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

 

SOUTH

Tropical troubles are the main concern for residents and visitors in the south region, as things get quite busy out over the open waters of the region. I will have the particulars on these developments in the ‘Tropics’ section of this report. For the sake of this section, suffice it to say that the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China need to pay close attention to these tropical weather developments. In the meantime, plentiful moisture is well entrenched over the region as we roll through the early days of summer. Daytime heating will help lift this moisture up and squeeze out showers and thunderstorms for many locations in the region through Sunday.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

32

90 31 88 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

Ho Chi Minh

32

90 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

33

91 33 91 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

Davao City

31

88 32 90 Sctd. T-Storms

Thunderstorms

Brunei

30

86 34 93 Thunderstorms

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-Storms

 

TROPICS

And then there were three…

With the advent of the wet phase of the M.J.O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) over the region during the past 4 or 5 days, we have seen a drastic uptick in tropical moisture and convergence within the region. The increase and moisture has helped create an overall climatological improvement, with a large, deep, monsoonal trough setting up over the South China Sea and the Philippines, extending east into parts of Micronesia. This general climatological upswing has helped generate not one, not two, but three disturbances in the Western Pacific and South China Sea that we are monitoring.

TD96W INVEST 

96W INVEST, 25, JUN

96W INVEST, 25, JUN

TD96W INVEST sprang up in the South China Sea a few days ago, and although it was looking pretty promising at first, even being declared a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency), it has seen hard times befall it in terms of environmental support. Today, the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) places TD96W INVEST near 14.9N, 112.3E, or about 456km (283mi) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. The system is drifting about erratically in the South China Sea as the atmosphere adjusts and figures out what it wants to do. The official forecast track is showing no significant movement or development, and in fact, dissipation may be in the cards for this system as stronger energy moves in from the southeast and takes over.

 97W INVEST 

97W INVEST, 25, JUN

97W INVEST, 25, JUN

97W INVEST is suffering the same fate as 96W, but on the opposite end of the aforementioned trough. As with 96W a few days ago, 97W looked very healthy yesterday, as a swirl of convergent energy rolled through the deep moisture near Palau Island. However, the swirl seems to be racing westward, and it’s leaving the moisture behind to become part of something else, kind of. Today, the N.R.L. places the center of 97W INVEST near 6.0N, 139.0E, or about 520km (323mi) east-southeast of Koror, Palau, Micronesia. Earlier forecasts hinted that this system would form into something interesting as it moved across the Philippines late this weekend. Now, it appears that the energy has shifted to the east, and left the moisture behind to get sucked into whatever our newest member of the NWPAC disturbance club: 98W INVEST

98W INVEST

98W INVEST, 25, JUN

98W INVEST, 25, JUN

Computer forecast models have been fairly consistent for days, showing increased activity in the region, and development of something that will eventually affect parts of the Asian mainland. The two previously mentioned systems were the heirs-apparent of this coming development, but both of them are in the process of fizzling out. Many times, the overall notion of computer models gets realized, but not always quite the way the models envision it. This seems to be the case with the formation of the latest disturbance, 98W INVEST. Today, the N.R.L. places the center of 98W INVEST near 7.5N, 128.3E, or about 230km (143mi) east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur, Philippines, moving in a general west-northwesterly direction.

98W is really the energetic swirl from what is 97W, as it zoomed ahead in some sort of strange, atmospheric flow phenomenon, which is actually quite common given the environmental conditions. 98W and 97W are really the dual ends of a relatively short easterly wave that is expected to drift through the Philippines this weekend. Computer forecast models are backing off of developing any very strong systems, but the tendency remains for the models, especially G.F.S. (Global Forecasting System), to show all of this moisture and energy converging near where 96W is right now, to slowly spin and work its way to the north-northwest, more as a monsoonal gyre type system, impacting the Asian mainland sometime late next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, abundant moisture and ample daytime heating will help generate plenty of scattered clouds and a few thunderstorms. Overall, most locations should see a relatively uneventful weekend.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

31

88 31 88 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Yap

33

91 31 88 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Palau

30

86 31 88 Cloudy

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

30

86 30 86 Sctd. T-Storms

Sctd. T-Storms

Pohnpei

32

90 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Majuro

30

86 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Wake

31

88 29 84 Sctd. T-Storms

Mostly fair

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, CIMSS

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Multiple Tropical Lows Bring Heavy Rainfall Threats For Vietnam and Philippines Possible Nepartak

The tropics look like a pan of oil that has been lit on fire today with wide spread convection being seen from Yap and Palau through the South China sea stretching across the Philippines.

 

IR / VIS SAT

The thing is at least at this time this is a uncontrolled burn with wide spread monsoonal storms concentrated near two low pressure areas. A tropical depression (invest 96w) in the South China Sea and another invest area which could become a TD over Yap and Palau.

 

First we start with our Tropical Depression, officially this is expected to become a tropical storm in the next 24hrs as it tracks north towards Vietnam and Southern China.  Before this happens it will need to re-organize a little since as of Friday morning wind shear and multiple low level vorticies has turned this once decent looking TD in to a mess of scrambled eggs.

Most numerical guidance also continues to struggle on the handling of this storm, which further supports my ideas from yesterday, that is that this Tropical low regardless on if it becomes a named storm or not will be more of a Monsoonal Gyre which are notorious for bringing wide spread long lasting rainfall to locations they come near.  Thus heavy rainfall is to be expected in Vietnam and eventually China this weekend in to early next week.  For those in Hong Kong I wouldn’t worry as much about this though as our friends to the South as it does look like this low will be a very slow moving storm and Hong Kong remains just north of the extent of the Monsoonal rains.

 

72hr Rainfall Outlook

72hr Rainfall Outlook

For the Philippines though this could spell some long lasting intense rainfall heading through the weekend. Wide

IR / VIS SAT

spread swaths of Southern Luzon Visayas and Mindanao could see over 50mm of rainfall but parts of Visayas including the Cebu area might top 200mm this weekend. This in short means there is the chance of river flooding and landslides.

 

This is a combination of the TD and the Invest area now over Yap and Palau. That area already is bringing Thunderstorm alerts and Prolonged rainfall warnings for those islands as it slowly tracks over head over the next 48hrs carrying an abundance of moisture with it. Like a giant water balloon this will track west towards the Philippines bringing rainfall with it as well.

outlook

Can we see a Typhoon?

 

As I wouldn’t go ruling that out I would say there is an abundance of disorganized convection here which can put strain on developing storms as the energy in the area is unable to consolidate, still though lets continue to watch both areas, for those in the Philippines and Vietnam the threat of heavy rain and the chance of flooding.

 

LONG RANGE?

 

After this burst of activity models do not show much, but the yearly outlook and climatology suggest that things should start to pick up quickly as we head in to July. So right now do not trust long range models so much and keep a open mind for pending storms.
Some good news maybe not for these storms but in the near future may be happening.

For those who track and forecast storms in the western pacific there is a extra challenge in doing so compared to our friends in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic and that is a lack of aircraft recon.

Consistent typhoon reconnaissance ended nearly 30 years ago in 1987 with the closing of the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron base in Guam.

 

The squadron was responsible for some of the lowest official pressure readings in history in a tropical cyclone and was key in forecasting the storms for a half a century.

 

In 2010 a hurricane hunter ventured in to the western pacific to study the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific or “ITOP”.   The last flight to punch a eye wall in the Western Pacific was on October 18th 2010.

 

Taiwan still does flights on a irregular basis around storms to get steering flow information but never near the storms core.

aircraft

This could be changing in the near future though thanks to a Japanese Research team from Nagoya University, the University of the Ryukus and the Japan Meteorological Agency.

 

They have purchased a Lear Jet and equipped it with observational equipment including drop sondes. These are a type of equipment that are launched from the bottom of aircraft to get a gauge of the atmosphere inside a typhoon.

 

Flights are expected to start in 2017 and continue through 2020 with hopes of extending if funding remains suitable.

 

The Jet is likely to be stationed in Okinawa in southern Japan a location that is hit often several times a year by typhoons.

 

Due to the small size of the aircraft compared to its cousin the C-130 hurricane hunters it may not be able to punch the eye wall on significant typhoons, but one of the researchers during a interview with NHK TV stated they will try to get as close as possible to the storms center as safety permits.

 

 

The information gathered during flights will primarily be used for research purposes but since JMA is also working in the program it is apparent that it will also be used in directly nowcasting and forecasting typhoons tracks and strength.

 

Intensity forecasting is a bullet point for the agency since in recent years we have seen a surge in “Super Typhoons” in the western pacific.  Many people arguing it would have made a massive difference if there was recon during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

This is why the announcement of recon in to typhoons next year comes with such applause.