Archive | July, 2016

Layman’s Tropical Update – Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina), July 31, 2016

The “Layman’s Tropical Update”…11:00am PST update, July 31, 2016.

06W, FULL, 31 JUL

06W, FULL, 31 JUL

Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) continues to slowly strengthen and increase forward speed as it approaches the coast of northeast Luzon…landfall forecast later today over Cagayan province…heavy rainfall threatens mountainous areas of northern Luzon…

Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina)

Official Position(s):

**PAGASA (8:00am PST) – 17.2N, 123.8E

**JMA (8:00am PST) – 17.4N, 123.0E

**JTWC (11:00am PST) – 16.9N, 123.5E

Location: Approximately 72km (39nm) ESE of, Divilacan, Isabela, Philippines

Movement: West-northwest at 10 kts (20kph)

Winds:

**PAGASA- 46 kts (85kph) with gusts near 54 kts (100kph)

**JMA- 50 kts (93kph) with gusts near 70 kts (130kph);

**JTWC- 55 kts (102kph) with gusts near 70 kts (130kph)

Strength:

PAGASA-Tropical Storm

JMA- Severe Tropical Storm

JTWC- Tropical Storm

Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) continues to move to the west-northwest and slowly strengthen as it tracks quickly towards the province of Cagayan in northeast Luzon.

Current forecasts continue to show Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) to track mostly west-northwestward towards northeast Luzon, with landfall expected later this afternoon near Cabutunan Point, Cagayan province.

The center of NIDA (Carina) is currently moving towards the island of Luzon after quickly getting better organized yesterday evening. Agencies are in agreement on the projected track of the system, taking in over northeastern Luzon, back out into the Luzon Strait by tomorrow, with an eventual path to Hong Kong later in the week. The system is not expected to strengthen much more before landfall, due to land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Luzon, however, it will at least maintain strength due to the center of circulation’s location over very warm water, and the relatively low land features along the projected path.

As of 8:00am PST, PAGASA had issued TCWS storm signals for the following locations:

06W, TCWS, 31 JUL

06W, TCWS, 31 JUL

PSWS #2- Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Abra, and Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands

PSWS #1- Batanes Group of Islands, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Aurora

All areas advised should continue to closely monitor this storm system. Once the storm makes landfall, it will cross the area quickly, and re-emerge over water later tonight.

06W, RISK, 31 JUL

06W, RISK, 31 JUL

STORM SURGE WILL BE MODERATE ALONG THE SHORES OF EASTERN CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA PROVINCES. STORM SURGE IN THESE AREAS COULD REACH 3-6 FEET. SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT SURGE EVENT AS THE UNDERWATER SLOPE INTO THE AREA IS GRADUAL AND ALLOWS FOR EASY TRANSPORTATION OF SURGE ENERGY INTO COASTAL AREAS.

Rainfall will be heavy with this system. This storm will bring TORRENTIAL levels of rainfall to areas in its direct path, and within 50 km of the path. DO NOT DISREGARD THIS SYSTEM, EVEN IF IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER YOUR AREA.

Particular hazards include storm surge in the range of 3-6 feet…mud/landslides, flooding of rivers and tributaries, and significant structural and vegetation (trees/crops) damage. I estimate that most areas within 50km of the center’s track could easily pick up 200-300mm of rainfall by Monday, with some locations to the north of the center and in the higher terrain receiving as much as 400mm, OR MORE, of rain in isolated locations.

All preparations should be finished. Everyone that has chosen to stay should be preparing to stay inside for the next several hours.

PREPARATIONS

IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM:

YOU SHOULD BE FINISHED WITH YOUR STORM PREPARATIONS NOW.

Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit. Include a flashlight, batteries, cash, and first aid supplies.

Plan how to communicate with family members if you lose power. For example, you can call, text, email or use social media. Remember that during disasters, sending text messages is usually reliable and faster than making phone calls because phone lines are often overloaded or damaged.

Review your evacuation plan with your family. You may have to leave quickly so plan ahead.

Keep your vehicle in good working condition, and keep the gas tank NO LESS than ½ full; stock your vehicle with emergency supplies and a change of clothes.

If you plan to stay home during the storm, extra water, LPG gas, and fuel should be acquired and stored. Non-perishable food resources should also be secured and stored.

Water craft should monitor weather events closely. DO NOT venture from port until the storm passes due to strong winds and wind-generated waves making it VERY hazardous on the open seas.

The forecasts change every 6 hours, so stay tuned because we are CLOSELY monitoring this system and will bring you the VERY LATEST information as it is updated, in REAL TIME.

DO NOT PANIC. PREPARATION IS THE KEY TO BEING READY FOR ANY POSSIBLE OUTCOME.

Courtesy: JMA, JTWC, PAGASA, WPACWX.COM, RAMMB-NOAA

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Carina / Possible Nida Continues North Across the Philippines Bringing the Threat of Flooding and Landslides

IR / VIS SAT

The mass of convection over the Philippines now known as “Carina” by PAGASA and likely to be upgraded to Nida by JMA continues to slowly track north still bringing heavy rains for the central and northern areas of the country.

KEY NOTES

 

-The storm continues to track North North West along the coast of Visayas and Luzon. Outer rain bands though are still dominating the country and will continue to bring heavy rainfall in to Luzon through Monday.

-Models are coming more in agreement in a landfall in Cagayan before tracking north west towards south east China.

-The Philippine Sea has a tendency to rapidly develop storms, thus continued monitoring is warranted.

-Signal Force 1 has been issued across Eastern Visayas and South East Luzon Saturday morning. 

Areas Under Signal Force 1

LUZON: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay and Sorsogon

VISAYAS: Northern Samar, Eastern Samar and Samar

Regardless if it does intensify or not those across pretty much all of the Philippines can expect some heavy rainfall and the possibility of flooding this weekend. As of Saturday morning convective banding has been bringing thunderstorms across most of Visayas and Southern Luzon with the center of this TD remaining towards the east of Samar.

The rain should taper off for Visayas and Mindanao in to Saturday and Sunday but the western sea boards will continue to see moisture inflow. Including the Palawan area.

As we look ahead through the weekend in to Sunday and Monday the low will track North North West Moving over Northern Luzon and with it heavy rainfall up to 200-300mm possibly. This all depends on its forward movement and strength by Sunday but I still would be gearing up for at least low lying flooding From Cagayan south towards the NCR.

Still though across the mountains of Northern Luzon the threat of flooding and landslides will be very real and thus people here should be on guard.

td

LONG RANGE

From Taiwan to Hong Kong there is a chance of this storm hitting. Today though most numerical guidance has become more and more inline with the storm tracking towards Guangdong in South East China, this includes the Hong Kong area. This is still days away but it is worth noting the northward track. This is better than a westward one that would take the storm in to Vietnam, a country that is still recovering from Mirinae.

 

Tropics Heat Up Near the Philippines, Could we have Nida / Carina

Heading in to the weekend all our attention has turned towards the Philippine Sea where a new Tropical Depression is rapidly blowing up and will likely become our 4th named storm of 2016. If JMA does upgrade it will be named Nida. (A traditional women’s name from Thailand.)

 

Tropical Depression IR LOOP

KEY NOTES

 

-The storm is already impacting the southern Philippines.

-Models do NOT have a clear grasp on where it could go after development.

-The Philippine Sea has a tendency to rapidly develop storms, thus continued monitoring is warranted.

-No Signal Force Warnings have been issued at this time.

 

Regardless if it does intensify or not those across pretty much all of the Philippines can expect some heavy rainfall and the possiblilty of flooding this weekend. As of Friday morning convective banding has been bringing thunderstorms across most of Visayas and Mindanao with the center of this TD remaining towards the east.

 

Since the storm has not been named yet (Carina) no signal force has been issued. I would still treat it at least like signal Force one in these places today. Be wary of ferry travel and steeper elevations prone to mudslides.

 

The rain should taper off for Visayas and Mindanao in to Saturday and Sunday but the western sea boards will continue to see moisture inflow. Including the Palawan area.

 

TD OUTLOOK

TD OUTLOOK

As we look ahead through the weekend in to Sunday and Monday the low will track North North West Moving over Northern Luzon and with it heavy rainfall up to 200-300mm possibly. This all depends on its forward movement and strength by Sunday but I still would be gearing up for at least low lying flooding From Cagayan south towards the NCR.

 

Key thing to keep in mind is this is still developing and models still do not have to much of a handle on it, so just relying on one specific model would be fool hardy at this junction of the storms development.

 

LONG RANGE

 

From Taiwan to Hong Kong there is a chance of this storm hitting. For example the NAVGEM Numerical Model shows Taiwan with a hit while GFS and ECMWF takes the storm over Luzon and closer to Hong Kong.  This is still days away but it is worth noting the northward track. This is better than a westward one that would take the storm in to Vietnam, a country that is still recovering from Mirinae.

td

 

 

 Tropical Storm Mirinae now continues to weaken across Northern Vietnam after rolling onshore Thursday early morning as a Severe Tropical storm with winds over 100kph.

One person was killed and five people were injured when a house collapsed in Hanoi due to the strong winds.

State TV reported the city of Ninh Binh was submerged in a half of a meter of water halting traffic. Meanwhile in Noi Bai all flights were stormcancelled due to the rough weather. Flight in and out of Hanoi were also suspended. In one town of Thai Binh 7 fishing vessels were sunk in port as waves crashed ashore.

 

With this damage and casualty toll we must take note that even tropical storms can still be severe and dangerous despite not having the “typhoon” name.  A example of this was in 2011 Tropical Storm Washi hit the southern Philippines killing a estimated 1,268–2,546 people.

 

Vietnam averages about 7-10 tropical storms or typhoons a year. Thus despite this calm season with only 3 named storms thus far things do not look over yet for the country, even as far as statistics are concerned.