The tropics are becoming more active today with consistant rainfall over the Philippines this past weekend plus a new Tropical depression that could become our first named storm of 2016.
Flooding in Visayas
Its been raining rather persistently for several days now across the Central Philippines due to a constant easterly flow of moisture with the monsoon. In Cebu flooding has been a major issue, as shown in the video below.
Meanwhile south of Guam a tropical depression has formed.
Model guidance continues to show favorable conditions for this area to become our first Tropical Storm and possible typhoon of 2016.
Most models are pretty much in agreement something is going to move towards Taiwan and or Southern Japan. I know most of you guys trust the GFS model but I think its worth noting how far right the JMA is.
For those who don’t understand model outlooks; one thing I often caution people is not to look at one model when looking ahead at tropical systems and your best bet is to wait for the official track to come out. This developing storm is no different in this idea. All the models are constant on a storm developing but range from taking it towards Taiwan to one moving east of Okinawa towards Tokyo.