Archive | July 4, 2016

Nepartak head northwest as threat diminishes for Micronesia and the Mariana Islands

Slight change in strength today as Tropical Storm Nepartak churns southwest of the Mariana Islands.  The Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches that were posted for portions of Micronesia, along with a Small Craft Advisory for the Marianas, have been cancelled.

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt6yUJxWweM”%5D

Where is it Now?

201607040600 02W

Tropical Storm Nepartak remains southwest of the Mariana Islands with convection extending through Yap State of Micronesia.  The center of circulation is located 385 km west-southwest of Hagatna, Guam or about 490 km northeast of Colonia, Yap.  The storm has increased in forward motion–now moving toward the northwest at 30 km/h–as the steering currents have intensified.  As of 0600 UTC, Japan Meteorological Agency has noted that the winds have further intensified to 85 km/h with higher gusts near typhoon force at 120 km/h.  Central pressure is decreased to 994 hPa.  Current Nepartak is outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), but is forecast to do so on Tuesday.  At that time, PAGASA will christen it with the name “Butchoy.”

1601-00The Strength Forecast

Nepartak is taking advantage of warm ocean waters and ample outflow aloft.  Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center intensify the storm steadily over the course of the weak, with JTWC presenting a slightly stronger forecast when taking 1-minute vs 10-minute winds into consideration.  JMA forecasts Nepartak to become a severe tropical storm later tonight or early Tuesday morning before entering the PAR.  While JTWC forecasts typhoon status on Tuesday, JMA holds out until early Wednesday morning.  At this time, gales are forecast for the Batanes Group of the Philippines on Thursday, while strong typhoon force winds are forecast to affect Taiwan and the far southern Ryukyu Islands late Thursday into Friday.

The Forecast Track

Nepartak will continue to track northwest along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The challenge in the forecast will be how a mid-latitude trough affects this subtropical ridge.  As a result, the placement of this ridge will govern if Nepartak heads closer to the Ryukyus versus a more westerly track toward Taiwan.  The extended forecast (outside of the official 5-day track) presents a few different scenarios, again based on the placement of the subtropical ridge.  Western Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and eastern China will need to monitor this cyclone as well.

Daily update- Monday, July 4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 04 JUL

NWPAC outlook, 04 JUL

Summertime heat settles across much of the north region as clouds, showers, and thunderstorms hammer the central region. The south region is keeping a wary eye on the tropics where Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK slowly gets stronger. 

NORTH

Warm high pressure dominates the western two-thirds of the north region, where afternoon highs will spike above 32C (90F) across parts of Mongolia, and portions of interior China will see readings topping out near 36C (97F). To the east, a lingering frontal system draped across Japan, Korea, and eastern China will bring lots of cloudiness and showers, with a few thunderstorms as well.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

33

17 91 64

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

23

13 73 55

Mostly fair

Beijing

30

19 86 66

Partly cloudy

Seoul

23

22 73 72

Periods of rain

Tokyo

29

23 84 73

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

36

23 97 73

Mostly fair & HOT

Shanghai

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

More monsoonal moisture and energy continue across the central region, as a stalled frontal system dips into northern portions of the region, enhancing rain chances over interior and southeastern China. Moisture feeding into the region from the southwest is also creating a cloudy scenario across southern china and northern Indochina. Residents of the central region are watching closely for the developments of Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK, currently located near Guam. Official forecasts show a direct impact to the region later this week. I’ll cover this much more in the ‘tropics’ section of this report.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

17 75 63

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

32

28 90 82

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

32

28 90 82

Mostly fair

Hanoi

34

26 93 79

Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

The south region will see another relatively uneventful day, as copious moisture across the region gets a lift from the afternoon sun in spots, helping stir up showers and thunderstorms, with some of them locally heavy. Many in the south region are concerned about Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK, and whereas it appears that the region will escape any direct effects, the Philippines could see a significant enhancement in rainfall as the system passes to the north later this week. I’ll have more on TS02W NEPARTAK in the next section.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

25 91 77

Mostly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

34

26 93 79

Partly cloudy

Manila

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

34

25 93 77

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

27 90 81

Mostly fair

 

TROPICS

After a record-setting 200-day drought of named tropical system formation in the Western pacific, we finally have our first bona-fide storm forming out there, just southwest of Guam:

TS 02W NEPARTAK

Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK is spinning up quite nicely to the west-southwest of Guam today. Here are the latest statistics on 02W:

Position: 11.3N, 142.4 E

Location: 177mi (285km) west-southwest of Guam

Movement: NW at 12kt (22.2kph)

Winds: 45kph with gusts to 55kph

Strength: Tropical Storm

02W NEPARTAK is expected to continue to develop over the coming days, becoming the seasons’ first typhoon. The system is expected to continue moving in a general northwesterly direction, with sights set on the southeastern Chinese coast later this week. All interests along the coast of southeastern China, Taiwan, the Ryukyus, and even Korea should monitor this situation closely as it develops.

02W NEPARTAK, 04 JUL

02W NEPARTAK, 04 JUL

Elsewhere across the tropics, there are no other systems forming, but there are plenty of spots that have potential. These spots will drift through the region today bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to many locations.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms possible

Yap

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

29

26 84 79

Mostly cloudy

Pohnpei

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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