WesternPacificWeather.com

Archive | July 4, 2016

Nepartak head northwest as threat diminishes for Micronesia and the Mariana Islands

July 4, 2016 by mikeadcock 0 Comments

Slight change in strength today as Tropical Storm Nepartak churns southwest of the Mariana Islands. The Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches that were posted for portions of Micronesia, along with a Small Craft Advisory for the Marianas, have been cancelled.

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt6yUJxWweM”%5D

Where is it Now?

Tropical Storm Nepartak remains southwest of the Mariana Islands with convection extending through Yap State of Micronesia. The center of circulation is located 385 km west-southwest of Hagatna, Guam or about 490 km northeast of Colonia, Yap. The storm has increased in forward motion–now moving toward the northwest at 30 km/h–as the steering currents have intensified. As of 0600 UTC, Japan Meteorological Agency has noted that the winds have further intensified to 85 km/h with higher gusts near typhoon force at 120 km/h. Central pressure is decreased to 994 hPa. Current Nepartak is outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), but is forecast to do so on Tuesday. At that time, PAGASA will christen it with the name “Butchoy.”

The Strength Forecast

Nepartak is taking advantage of warm ocean waters and ample outflow aloft. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center intensify the storm steadily over the course of the weak, with JTWC presenting a slightly stronger forecast when taking 1-minute vs 10-minute winds into consideration. JMA forecasts Nepartak to become a severe tropical storm later tonight or early Tuesday morning before entering the PAR. While JTWC forecasts typhoon status on Tuesday, JMA holds out until early Wednesday morning. At this time, gales are forecast for the Batanes Group of the Philippines on Thursday, while strong typhoon force winds are forecast to affect Taiwan and the far southern Ryukyu Islands late Thursday into Friday.

The Forecast Track

Nepartak will continue to track northwest along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge. The challenge in the forecast will be how a mid-latitude trough affects this subtropical ridge. As a result, the placement of this ridge will govern if Nepartak heads closer to the Ryukyus versus a more westerly track toward Taiwan. The extended forecast (outside of the official 5-day track) presents a few different scenarios, again based on the placement of the subtropical ridge. Western Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and eastern China will need to monitor this cyclone as well.

Uncategorized

Daily update- Monday, July 4, 2016

July 4, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 04 JUL

Summertime heat settles across much of the north region as clouds, showers, and thunderstorms hammer the central region. The south region is keeping a wary eye on the tropics where Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK slowly gets stronger.

NORTH

Warm high pressure dominates the western two-thirds of the north region, where afternoon highs will spike above 32C (90F) across parts of Mongolia, and portions of interior China will see readings topping out near 36C (97F). To the east, a lingering frontal system draped across Japan, Korea, and eastern China will bring lots of cloudiness and showers, with a few thunderstorms as well.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	33	17	91	64	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Vladivostok	23	13	73	55	Mostly fair
Beijing	30	19	86	66	Partly cloudy
Seoul	23	22	73	72	Periods of rain
Tokyo	29	23	84	73	Partly cloudy
Xi’an	36	23	97	73	Mostly fair & HOT
Shanghai	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely

CENTRAL

More monsoonal moisture and energy continue across the central region, as a stalled frontal system dips into northern portions of the region, enhancing rain chances over interior and southeastern China. Moisture feeding into the region from the southwest is also creating a cloudy scenario across southern china and northern Indochina. Residents of the central region are watching closely for the developments of Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK, currently located near Guam. Official forecasts show a direct impact to the region later this week. I’ll cover this much more in the ‘tropics’ section of this report.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	24	17	75	63	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong	32	28	90	82	Thunderstorms likely
Taipei	34	26	93	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Naha	32	28	90	82	Mostly fair
Hanoi	34	26	93	79	Mostly cloudy

SOUTH

The south region will see another relatively uneventful day, as copious moisture across the region gets a lift from the afternoon sun in spots, helping stir up showers and thunderstorms, with some of them locally heavy. Many in the south region are concerned about Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK, and whereas it appears that the region will escape any direct effects, the Philippines could see a significant enhancement in rainfall as the system passes to the north later this week. I’ll have more on TS02W NEPARTAK in the next section.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	33	25	91	77	Mostly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	34	26	93	79	Partly cloudy
Manila	29	24	84	75	Thunderstorms possible
Davao City	33	24	91	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	34	25	93	77	Partly cloudy
Singapore	32	27	90	81	Mostly fair

TROPICS

After a record-setting 200-day drought of named tropical system formation in the Western pacific, we finally have our first bona-fide storm forming out there, just southwest of Guam:

TS 02W NEPARTAK

Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK is spinning up quite nicely to the west-southwest of Guam today. Here are the latest statistics on 02W:

Position: 11.3N, 142.4 E

Location: 177mi (285km) west-southwest of Guam

Movement: NW at 12kt (22.2kph)

Winds: 45kph with gusts to 55kph

Strength: Tropical Storm

02W NEPARTAK is expected to continue to develop over the coming days, becoming the seasons’ first typhoon. The system is expected to continue moving in a general northwesterly direction, with sights set on the southeastern Chinese coast later this week. All interests along the coast of southeastern China, Taiwan, the Ryukyus, and even Korea should monitor this situation closely as it develops.

02W NEPARTAK, 04 JUL

Elsewhere across the tropics, there are no other systems forming, but there are plenty of spots that have potential. These spots will drift through the region today bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to many locations.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	30	27	86	81	Thunderstorms possible
Yap	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Palau	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	29	26	84	79	Mostly cloudy
Pohnpei	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro	30	26	86	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Wake	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.