Archive | July 5, 2016

Daily update- Tuesday, July 5, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 05 JUL

NWPAC outlook, 05 JUL

Summer floods affect parts of the north region as showers and thunderstorms continue to batter the region. The continental areas of the central region will see some of the same with plenty of moisture and energy in the area. The south region will see another typical summer day, while the tropics observe the formation of 2016’s first typhoon, 02W NEPARTAK. 

NORTH

The biggest story coming out of the north region today is in regards to deadly flooding in China’s Jiangsu and Anhui provinces west of Shanghai where reports have come in of at least 186 dead, dozens missing, and 1.5 million people evacuated as rainfall in excess of 450 mm has fallen over these locales in the past 48 hours. There is no relief in sight for this region, as a stalled frontal boundary serves as a focusing mechanism for ample moisture and energy to help fire off wave after wave of heavy rain. Elsewhere across the region, very warm temperatures are in place for much of China, where lots of sunshine gets a chance to warm things up a bit. To the east, clouds, showers, and rainfall will affect southeastern Russia, Japan, and Korea, where heavy rain is also a possibility later this afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

27

18 81 64

Scattered showers possible

Vladivostok

19

13 66 55

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

32

19 90 66

Mostly fair

Seoul

26

21 79 70

Thunderstorms likely

Tokyo

25

22 77 72

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

35

23 95 73

Mostly fair

Shanghai

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

The same frontal system that is bringing heavy rain to the north region is also bringing a round of the same to much of continental China in the central region. Offshore, however, conditions are much better, with lots of sunshine and scattered clouds. This is much like the calm before the storm as Typhoon NEPARTAK is expected to change the weather quite a bit across parts of the central region by this weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

23

17 73 63

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

34

26 93 79

Mostly fair

Naha

33

27 91 81

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

The south region will see another day of clouds, showers, and afternoon thunderstorms as tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sunshine. There are no special areas of interest to talk about in the south region, with the exception of TY02W NEPARTAK, which will bring quite a bit of rain to the Philippines starting late this week as it tracks north of the country.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

34

26 93 79

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

34

25 93 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Mostly fair

 

TROPICS

The first typhoon of the 2016 season has been born! Say hello to our little friend, Typhoon 02W NEPARTAK.

02W NEPARTAK Full, 05 JUL

02W NEPARTAK Full, 05 JUL

TY 02W NEPARTAK

The J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) designated 02W NEPARTAK as Typhoon 02W NEPARTAK this morning. NEPARTAK is gathering strength west of Guam today as it continues on an eventual track to somewhere near Taiwan. Here are the latest statistics on TY02W:

Position: 15.2, 136.6 E

Location: 560mi (901km) west of Guam

Pressure: 970 hPa

Movement: WNW at 30kph

Winds: 130kph with gusts to 185kph

Strength: Typhoon

02W NEPARTAK is expected to continue to develop over the coming days, becoming a powerful typhoon. The system is expected to continue moving in a general northwesterly direction, with sights set on the southeastern Chinese coast later this week. All interests along the coast of southeastern China, Taiwan, the Ryukyus, and even Korea should monitor this situation closely as it develops. Residents of the Philippines should monitor for monsoonal rainfall that will result from NEPARTAK’s passing to the north of the archipelago later this week.

Elsewhere across the tropics, there are no other systems forming, but there are plenty of spots that have potential. These spots will drift through the region today bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to many locations.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

26 88 79

Mostly fair

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

First Typhoon of 2016 Heads Towards Taiwan and Japan

JMA has announced now our first Typhoon of 2016 as of 03UTC.

typhoon

Typhoon Nepartak continues to slowly intensify today despite a moderate amount of shear keeping the storm from bombing out over the Philippine Sea.

As we look ahead though the storm is expected to escape the shear and move in to an area of favorable conditions for further development. At this time JMA expects the storm to max out as a “Very Strong” Typhoon and the JTWC is forecasting a Category 4 on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

Where is it now?

 

As of Tuesday morning Nepartak was located about half way between Guam and the Philippines moving North West at about 35kph. A relatively fast speed for a typhoon.  The storm has been combating moderate vertical wind shear around 15-20kts keeping it from gaining a clear symmetrical shape. On IR imagery the vast amount of the outflow has remained confined to the northern Periphery of the storm. Despite this deep banding has started to set up to the south as Monsoonal moisture begins to feed in to Nepartak.

mmic

Click here for the latest Sat. Imagery on the storm. 

Tuesday morning also gave us the first glimpse of a developing eye on Microwave Imagery only though. Visible and IR remain blocked by overcast cirrus.

 JMA

The Forecast Track

 

There is high confidence Nepartak will continue North West following the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands south of Japan. Through the next 48hrs this will stay consistent and almost certainly will take the storm east of the Philippines. (Philippines will get a side effect from the storm though, see below)

 

By Thursday we will see the storm round the sub-tropical ridge and begin to re-curve. The exact location of this though is still uncertain but confidence has been building on it impacting Ishigaki, Miyako and Northern Taiwan.  For the smaller islands though if the storm moves just west or to the east of a specific location could mean a vast difference in how the winds are felt. That is why checking back in on the track over the course the next 48hrs is vital.

Forecast Impacts

Forecast Impacts

The Strength Forecast

 

WMO forecasting agencies upped the strength forecast today with JTWC expecting a Category 4 typhoon by Thursday. JMA as well expects Nepartak to max out with winds upwards of 250kph on Thursday.

 

The wind  is enough to not only light objects around but anything that could easily become air borne. The Southern Islands of Japan and Eastern Taiwan for the most part are built for Typhoon winds. Sloppy Prep though could make a huge difference. Even on a personal level.

 

The rainfall as always will be a major issue if the storm tracks closer to Taiwan. Even if it skirts the island rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

 

Take a look at the video below from 2015 when Typhoon Soudelor hit the island.

 

 

The storm should stay west of the main island of Okinawa but as mentioned before even a small shift east could mean an increase to Tropical storm strength winds. At this time though it does not look like damaging winds will be in Okinawa. That means no TCCORS for military there.

In the Philippines expect heavy rainfall to dominate from Wednesday to Friday in Visayas through much of Luzon. This includes the Metro areas of Cebu and Manila.  Despite the fact typhoon Nepartak will not impact the area directly it will still enhance the south west monsoon ushering in a “habagat” as it is known in the Philippines.   Consistent rainfall associated with this type of event is known for causing urban flooding in the city and landslides along mountain sides in remote areas.

storm

Outside of this storm there is plenty of weather going on across East Asia including China where flooding has been taken place. Check today’s Daily update for more info.

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

Record Breaking Slow Season

We have seen one of the longest streaks with no Typhoons in Recorded history and also the second latest named storm to ever form in the basin this year.

Conditions have just not been favorable for storm development with high shear really tearing apart any storms that even had a idea of forming in to a named system. This has a lot to do with the dynamics in the West Pacicic and how the atmosphere has been changing from a El Nino State to a La Nina one. Regardless it sure has made for some unusually calm weather recently. Especially coming off of the record breaking 2015 Typhoon Season.