Archive | July 6, 2016

VIOLENT Super Typhoon Nepartak Nears Landfall

The first named storm of 2016 has become a violent Typhoon that rivals some of the best known typhoons on record.

nepartak

Key Points

  • The storm continues to maintain a Cat. 5 equivalent intensity today with superb banding around it giving the classic “buzz saw” shape only seen in the most intense storms.

 

  • TAIWAN will see the worst conditions overnight Thursday in to Friday in South East Taiwan between Taitung and Hualien City. Yet depending on where the storm exactly makes landfall anywhere along the eastern sea board north of the storms center of circulation is under the threat of damaging winds.jma

 

  • Flooding and Landslides will be the main issue in Taiwan. The mountains of the island extend up to 3,000 meters and are well known for squeezing out moisture from Typhoons. In 2009 typhoon Morokat dropped over 3 meters of rainfall killing nearly 800 people on the island.

 

 

  • Ishigaki and Miyako Jima should still watch it closely as the right side of the storm will side swipe the islands bringing damaging winds up to 126kph at times. Good news these islands are built for these kind of storms but the storm will be keeping people hunkered down through Friday afternoon.

Where is it Now?

It is currently intensifying in the classic “Philippine sea effect” way. A region of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures has allowed the storm to blow up from a weak Typhoon Tuesday morning to nearly a Cat 5 Wednesday morning. Furthermore the storm has become a perfect definition of a “annular” storm allowing to maintain its intensity as it nears landfall.

The visible sat loop from Sunrise Thursday morning shows incredible outflow from the storm, a well defined eye and a dangerous eye wall. Key thing as well is the eye is not that large, this indicates it is a very compact and dangerous storm. The inner eye wall could have sustained winds over 200kph. Which at landfall may last several hours.

landfall

Landfall In Taiwan

Confidence is building on a landfall in South East Taiwan between Taitung and Hualien City. Areas just north of the center of circulation will take the brunt of the winds with the peak being just prior to sunrise and at sunrise Friday morning.

The coastal and inland mountain range will do its classic job of squeezing out the moisture from the storm.  The rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

Landslides are always a major problem with land falling storms in Taiwan, often coastal roads can be blocked and impassible especially just north of Hualien City along the east coast. The photo below shows where the highest threats of flooding and landslides are located.

Landslide and Flood Threat

Landslide and Flood Threat

Landfall in China

The storm very well could re-intensify over the Taiwan Strait before slamming in to Fujian and then tracking north along the China East Coast. This is extremely problematic as that entire area continues to deal with flooding from the rainy season front this past month. This past week alone over 120 people have died and millions have been effected by the floods.

The ground obviously already Saturday and with rivers overflowing additional rainfall will only spell for additional flooding. Especially for those locations in the Yangzi river basin.

 

Typhoon Neparak Meteorological Discussion

Typhoon Naparak continues to intensify as it heads towards Taiwan, this live stream will give you the latest information on the storm and what to expect.

This video is a playback from the show earlier today, but still it is a hour of us weather geeks giving you the latest information.

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Daily update- Wednesday, July 6, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUL

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUL

Flooding rain continues to fall across portions of the north region as the summertime heat settles in across some locales. The central region will also see a fair share of rainfall with attention clearly focused on the progress of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK.  The south region will see a rather normal weather situation today while ALL eyes in the NWPAC are watching NEPARTAK very closely. 

NORTH

More flooding rain will impact parts of eastern China today, where flooding has already claimed more than 100 lives, with dozens more still unaccounted for, and has displaced millions. The frontal system responsible for this rainfall is undulating over central China, Korea, and Japan, and for today at least, most of the energy will be in the more southerly locales of the region. Parts of interior China will see temperatures spike above 35C (95F), offering up dangerous heat indices during the peak of heating. Summer warmth extends northward to Mongolia, where residents there will see a very warm afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 33 17 91 63 Mostly cloudy
Vladivostok 24 14 75 57 Mostly fair
Beijing 34 20 93 68 Mostly fair
Seoul 26 20 79 68 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 27 23 81 73 Partly cloudy
Xi’an 36 24 97 75 Partly cloudy & HOT
Shanghai 31 26 88 79 Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

The big story in the central region for today, and the next several days, is the incoming threat of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours with forecast tracks bringing it into Taiwan sometime overnight Thursday/Friday. This system will be a dangerous storm as it approaches the island, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW. I will have more on this storm system in the ‘tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, the nearly-stationary frontal system remains in place, having been given a bit of a northerly surge, and is draped across most of the northern locales of the region. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms are possible along the frontal boundary, with flooding rain possible.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 22 16 72 61 Thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong 32 28 90 82 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Taipei 35 26 95 79 Mostly fair
Naha 32 27 90 81 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Hanoi 29 25 84 77 Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Residents and visitors in the south region are watching STY NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, nervously, as it ramps up in strength and continues to race to the WNW. Fortunately for the south region, direct effects of this system will be negligible, however, as with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. Elsewhere across the south region today, plenty of tropical moisture is in place, and is being aided by complex surface and upper-level trough features over Indochina, helping bring lots of rain to the peninsula. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms are also likely in the Philippines and Singapore, while Brunei will see a bit of a break for today.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 30 24 86 75 Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh 29 24 84 75 Thunderstorms likely
Manila 31 24 88 75 Thunderstorms likely
Davao City 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 33 24 91 75 Mostly fair
Singapore 31 27 88 81 Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Our first typhoon of the season has not disappointed those desiring a strong opening to the season, as rapid intensification over the past 24 hours has given us a Super Typhoon to follow.

TY 02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy)

02W NEPARTAK-full-070616

02W NEPARTAK-full-070616

The J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) designated 02W NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, a typhoon yesterday morning, and through the day yesterday the storm ramped up in an impressive way, especially in the evening hours. By 11 pm PST, NEPARTAK (Butchoy) had surpassed the Super Typhoon strength threshold as it continues to race to the WNW on track for Taiwan. Here are the latest statistics on STY02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy):

Position: 18.3, 131.0 E

Location: 599mi (964km) east-southeast of Basco, Batanes, Philippines

Pressure: 925 hPa

Movement: WNW at 35kph

Winds: 185kph with gusts to 259kph

Strength: Super Typhoon (CAT 4 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale)

NEPARTAK (Butchoy) is expected to continue to move quickly to the west northwest with Taiwan as the forecasted target with landfall expected sometime overnight Thursday/Friday morning. This system will be a deadly storm when it makes landfall, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW in Taiwan with primary preparations nearing completion in southeastern China. As with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. For a full report on this system, please check out the report by Meteorologist Rob Speta here.

Stay with us here at WesternPacificWeather.com for all the latest details on this dangerous situation.

Elsewhere across the tropics, a few weak waves are rolling along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region. Long-range computer models are not showing any development in the coming days, but that can change in a hurry this time of year. We will keep an eye on things for you.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Guam 32 27 90 81 Partly cloudy
Yap 31 26 88 79 Thunderstorms possible
Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Super Typhoon Nepartak Races Towards Taiwan

The first “Super Typhoon” of 2016 is now roaring its way north west Towards Taiwan this Wednesday ushering in the first threat of a land falling damaging typhoon in 2016.

Key Points –

 

  • The storm is expected to make landfall in Taiwan Thursday night in to Friday Morning, the exact location is still uncertain due to the synoptic layout and how the storm interacts with the mountains as it nears.
  • Damaging winds north of the storms track and flooding in the mountains of Taiwan will be the main issue.
  • Ishigaki and Miyako Jima should still watch it closely as the right side of the storm will swipe the islands bringing damaging winds.
  • THE STORM WILL NOT make landfall in the Philippines. Although the Batanes islands in the Luzon straight could see the rough weather. Plus the enhanced monsoon “Habagat” will bring heavy rainfall to Central Luzon through Visayas.
  • Okinawa Honto could see some gusty winds and heavy rains on Thursday and Friday due to the outer rain bands of the storm. Winds are not expected to top 50kts on the island so a slim chance of TCCORS changing.

 

What is it doing now?

It is currently intensifying in the classic “Philippine sea effect” way. A region of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures has allowed the storm to blow up from a weak Typhoon Tuesday morning to nearly a Cat 5 Wednesday morning.

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

The visible sat loop from Sunrise Wednesday morning shows incredible outflow from the storm, a well defined eye and a dangerous eye wall. Good news unlike previous storms in this area the size is not that large ranging only a few 100km across.

 

The Forecast Track

There is high confidence Nepartak will continue North West following the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands south of Japan. At this time there is also fair confidence that the storm WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN by Thursday night in to Friday morning.  The exact location is still now known though and as we have seen in the past the way a storm interacts with the mountains of Taiwan depending on how it comes on shore makes a incredible difference in how much rain falls and where it falls. This is why residents here should check for continued updates and also prepare regardless for typhoon Conditions.

track

The Strength Forecast

WMO forecasting agencies upped the strength forecast today with JTWC expecting a Category 5 typhoon by Thursday. JMA as well expects Nepartak to max out with winds over 250kph.

The wind  is enough to not only light objects around but also send heavier objects includes mopeds, trampolines, trees, and small cars.  MAKE SURE TO SECURE EVERYTHING.

Nepartak

The rainfall as always will be a major issue if the storm tracks closer to Taiwan. Even if it skirts the island rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

96hr

Landslides are always a major problem with land falling storms in Taiwan, often coastal roads can be blocked and impassible especially just north of Hualien City along the east coast. The photo below shows where the highest threats of flooding and landslides are located.

landslide threat

Take a look at the video below from 2015 when Typhoon Soudelor hit the island.

Preparation.

 

Here is a bare minimum list of the things that I personally keep in my house at all times:

– Flashlights

– Spare batteries

– Groceries plus for 4 days

– Radio

– Bottled water

–  Bungie cords and/or tie down material, (including trampolines, the US Military most favorite object to have launched across the island of Okinawa)

 

Of course this is a short list and just a start of preparations. A longer explanation can be found here.

 

The storm should stay west of the main island of Okinawa but as mentioned before even a small shift east could mean an increase to Tropical storm strength winds. At this time though it does not look like damaging winds will be in Okinawa. That means no TCCORS for military there.

Even though Typhoon Neparak will stay south of Okinawa Japan there is still the chance of consistent rainfall and some strong storms associated with the mass of convection located north east of the storm. This will trail along with it pushing over the Ryuku islands through Friday.

okinawa

In the Philippines expect heavy rainfall to dominate from Wednesday to Friday in Visayas through much of Luzon. This includes the Metro areas of Cebu and Manila.  Despite the fact typhoon Nepartak will not impact the area directly it will still enhance the south west monsoon ushering in a “habagat” as it is known in the Philippines.   Consistent rainfall associated with this type of event is known for causing urban flooding in the city and landslides along mountain sides in remote areas.

storm

Record Breaking Slow Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

We have seen one of the longest streaks with no Typhoons in Recorded history and also the second latest named storm to ever form in the basin this year.

 

Conditions have just not been favorable for storm development with high shear really tearing apart any storms that even had a idea of forming in to a named system. This has a lot to do with the dynamics in the West Pacicic and how the atmosphere has been changing from a El Nino State to a La Nina one. Regardless it sure has made for some unusually calm weather recently. Especially coming off of the record breaking 2015 Typhoon Season.