Archive | July 6, 2016

VIOLENT Super Typhoon Nepartak Nears Landfall

The first named storm of 2016 has become a violent Typhoon that rivals some of the best known typhoons on record.

nepartak

Key Points

  • The storm continues to maintain a Cat. 5 equivalent intensity today with superb banding around it giving the classic “buzz saw” shape only seen in the most intense storms.

 

  • TAIWAN will see the worst conditions overnight Thursday in to Friday in South East Taiwan between Taitung and Hualien City. Yet depending on where the storm exactly makes landfall anywhere along the eastern sea board north of the storms center of circulation is under the threat of damaging winds.jma

 

  • Flooding and Landslides will be the main issue in Taiwan. The mountains of the island extend up to 3,000 meters and are well known for squeezing out moisture from Typhoons. In 2009 typhoon Morokat dropped over 3 meters of rainfall killing nearly 800 people on the island.

 

 

  • Ishigaki and Miyako Jima should still watch it closely as the right side of the storm will side swipe the islands bringing damaging winds up to 126kph at times. Good news these islands are built for these kind of storms but the storm will be keeping people hunkered down through Friday afternoon.

Where is it Now?

It is currently intensifying in the classic “Philippine sea effect” way. A region of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures has allowed the storm to blow up from a weak Typhoon Tuesday morning to nearly a Cat 5 Wednesday morning. Furthermore the storm has become a perfect definition of a “annular” storm allowing to maintain its intensity as it nears landfall.

The visible sat loop from Sunrise Thursday morning shows incredible outflow from the storm, a well defined eye and a dangerous eye wall. Key thing as well is the eye is not that large, this indicates it is a very compact and dangerous storm. The inner eye wall could have sustained winds over 200kph. Which at landfall may last several hours.

landfall

Landfall In Taiwan

Confidence is building on a landfall in South East Taiwan between Taitung and Hualien City. Areas just north of the center of circulation will take the brunt of the winds with the peak being just prior to sunrise and at sunrise Friday morning.

The coastal and inland mountain range will do its classic job of squeezing out the moisture from the storm.  The rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

Landslides are always a major problem with land falling storms in Taiwan, often coastal roads can be blocked and impassible especially just north of Hualien City along the east coast. The photo below shows where the highest threats of flooding and landslides are located.

Landslide and Flood Threat

Landslide and Flood Threat

Landfall in China

The storm very well could re-intensify over the Taiwan Strait before slamming in to Fujian and then tracking north along the China East Coast. This is extremely problematic as that entire area continues to deal with flooding from the rainy season front this past month. This past week alone over 120 people have died and millions have been effected by the floods.

The ground obviously already Saturday and with rivers overflowing additional rainfall will only spell for additional flooding. Especially for those locations in the Yangzi river basin.

 

Typhoon Neparak Meteorological Discussion

Typhoon Naparak continues to intensify as it heads towards Taiwan, this live stream will give you the latest information on the storm and what to expect.

This video is a playback from the show earlier today, but still it is a hour of us weather geeks giving you the latest information.

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Daily update- Wednesday, July 6, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUL

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUL

Flooding rain continues to fall across portions of the north region as the summertime heat settles in across some locales. The central region will also see a fair share of rainfall with attention clearly focused on the progress of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK.  The south region will see a rather normal weather situation today while ALL eyes in the NWPAC are watching NEPARTAK very closely. 

NORTH

More flooding rain will impact parts of eastern China today, where flooding has already claimed more than 100 lives, with dozens more still unaccounted for, and has displaced millions. The frontal system responsible for this rainfall is undulating over central China, Korea, and Japan, and for today at least, most of the energy will be in the more southerly locales of the region. Parts of interior China will see temperatures spike above 35C (95F), offering up dangerous heat indices during the peak of heating. Summer warmth extends northward to Mongolia, where residents there will see a very warm afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 33 17 91 63 Mostly cloudy
Vladivostok 24 14 75 57 Mostly fair
Beijing 34 20 93 68 Mostly fair
Seoul 26 20 79 68 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 27 23 81 73 Partly cloudy
Xi’an 36 24 97 75 Partly cloudy & HOT
Shanghai 31 26 88 79 Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

CENTRAL

The big story in the central region for today, and the next several days, is the incoming threat of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours with forecast tracks bringing it into Taiwan sometime overnight Thursday/Friday. This system will be a dangerous storm as it approaches the island, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW. I will have more on this storm system in the ‘tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, the nearly-stationary frontal system remains in place, having been given a bit of a northerly surge, and is draped across most of the northern locales of the region. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms are possible along the frontal boundary, with flooding rain possible.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 22 16 72 61 Thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong 32 28 90 82 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Taipei 35 26 95 79 Mostly fair
Naha 32 27 90 81 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Hanoi 29 25 84 77 Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Residents and visitors in the south region are watching STY NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, nervously, as it ramps up in strength and continues to race to the WNW. Fortunately for the south region, direct effects of this system will be negligible, however, as with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. Elsewhere across the south region today, plenty of tropical moisture is in place, and is being aided by complex surface and upper-level trough features over Indochina, helping bring lots of rain to the peninsula. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms are also likely in the Philippines and Singapore, while Brunei will see a bit of a break for today.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 30 24 86 75 Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh 29 24 84 75 Thunderstorms likely
Manila 31 24 88 75 Thunderstorms likely
Davao City 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 33 24 91 75 Mostly fair
Singapore 31 27 88 81 Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Our first typhoon of the season has not disappointed those desiring a strong opening to the season, as rapid intensification over the past 24 hours has given us a Super Typhoon to follow.

TY 02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy)

02W NEPARTAK-full-070616

02W NEPARTAK-full-070616

The J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) designated 02W NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, a typhoon yesterday morning, and through the day yesterday the storm ramped up in an impressive way, especially in the evening hours. By 11 pm PST, NEPARTAK (Butchoy) had surpassed the Super Typhoon strength threshold as it continues to race to the WNW on track for Taiwan. Here are the latest statistics on STY02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy):

Position: 18.3, 131.0 E

Location: 599mi (964km) east-southeast of Basco, Batanes, Philippines

Pressure: 925 hPa

Movement: WNW at 35kph

Winds: 185kph with gusts to 259kph

Strength: Super Typhoon (CAT 4 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale)

NEPARTAK (Butchoy) is expected to continue to move quickly to the west northwest with Taiwan as the forecasted target with landfall expected sometime overnight Thursday/Friday morning. This system will be a deadly storm when it makes landfall, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW in Taiwan with primary preparations nearing completion in southeastern China. As with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. For a full report on this system, please check out the report by Meteorologist Rob Speta here.

Stay with us here at WesternPacificWeather.com for all the latest details on this dangerous situation.

Elsewhere across the tropics, a few weak waves are rolling along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region. Long-range computer models are not showing any development in the coming days, but that can change in a hurry this time of year. We will keep an eye on things for you.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Guam 32 27 90 81 Partly cloudy
Yap 31 26 88 79 Thunderstorms possible
Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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