Daily update- Wednesday, July 6, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 06 JUL

Flooding rain continues to fall across portions of the north region as the summertime heat settles in across some locales. The central region will also see a fair share of rainfall with attention clearly focused on the progress of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK.  The south region will see a rather normal weather situation today while ALL eyes in the NWPAC are watching NEPARTAK very closely. 

NORTH

More flooding rain will impact parts of eastern China today, where flooding has already claimed more than 100 lives, with dozens more still unaccounted for, and has displaced millions. The frontal system responsible for this rainfall is undulating over central China, Korea, and Japan, and for today at least, most of the energy will be in the more southerly locales of the region. Parts of interior China will see temperatures spike above 35C (95F), offering up dangerous heat indices during the peak of heating. Summer warmth extends northward to Mongolia, where residents there will see a very warm afternoon.

CENTRAL

The big story in the central region for today, and the next several days, is the incoming threat of Super Typhoon NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours with forecast tracks bringing it into Taiwan sometime overnight Thursday/Friday. This system will be a dangerous storm as it approaches the island, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW. I will have more on this storm system in the ‘tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, the nearly-stationary frontal system remains in place, having been given a bit of a northerly surge, and is draped across most of the northern locales of the region. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms are possible along the frontal boundary, with flooding rain possible.

SOUTH

Residents and visitors in the south region are watching STY NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, nervously, as it ramps up in strength and continues to race to the WNW. Fortunately for the south region, direct effects of this system will be negligible, however, as with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. Elsewhere across the south region today, plenty of tropical moisture is in place, and is being aided by complex surface and upper-level trough features over Indochina, helping bring lots of rain to the peninsula. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms are also likely in the Philippines and Singapore, while Brunei will see a bit of a break for today.

TROPICS

Our first typhoon of the season has not disappointed those desiring a strong opening to the season, as rapid intensification over the past 24 hours has given us a Super Typhoon to follow.

TY 02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy)

02W NEPARTAK-full-070616

The J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) designated 02W NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, a typhoon yesterday morning, and through the day yesterday the storm ramped up in an impressive way, especially in the evening hours. By 11 pm PST, NEPARTAK (Butchoy) had surpassed the Super Typhoon strength threshold as it continues to race to the WNW on track for Taiwan. Here are the latest statistics on STY02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy):

Position: 18.3, 131.0 E

Location: 599mi (964km) east-southeast of Basco, Batanes, Philippines

Pressure: 925 hPa

Movement: WNW at 35kph

Winds: 185kph with gusts to 259kph

Strength: Super Typhoon (CAT 4 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale)

NEPARTAK (Butchoy) is expected to continue to move quickly to the west northwest with Taiwan as the forecasted target with landfall expected sometime overnight Thursday/Friday morning. This system will be a deadly storm when it makes landfall, and secondary preparations should be underway NOW in Taiwan with primary preparations nearing completion in southeastern China. As with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. For a full report on this system, please check out the report by Meteorologist Rob Speta here.

Stay with us here at WesternPacificWeather.com for all the latest details on this dangerous situation.

Elsewhere across the tropics, a few weak waves are rolling along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region. Long-range computer models are not showing any development in the coming days, but that can change in a hurry this time of year. We will keep an eye on things for you.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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