WesternPacificWeather.com

NWPAC outlook, 07 JUL

ALL eyes in the NWPAC are on Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (Butchoy) as it bears down on Taiwan and eastern China, ready to impact much of the north and central regions. The south region will see monsoonal effects from this storm with lots of heavy rain in the Philippines, while the tropics give us NEPARTAK, but not much else right now.

 NORTH

With a general lack of inclement weather across much of the north region today, we will keep this segment rather short. Some rainfall is still possible today in parts of eastern China, but it looks like flooding rain will not show up…today. Howewver, as NEPARTAK makes landfall over Taiwan and the southeastern Chinese coast late tonight and tomorrow, incessant flooding rain is likely once again for these areas. Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (Butchoy) is the big news as it bears down on southeastern China. I’ll have more on this in the rest of today’s report.

CENTRAL

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK, also named ’Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, is bearing down on Taiwan this morning, and radar out of Taiwan is already seeing the incredible structure of the storm. NEPARTAK is expected to make landfall late tonight somewhere along the southeastern coast of Taiwan. This is a dangerous storm, and residents of Taiwan and southeastern China should be making last-minute verifications on their preparations and getting ready to hunker down for the ride. In southeastern mainland China, the effects will be delayed into tomorrow, but coastal areas will see an increase in clouds, showers, and winds as we go through the day today. Another feature to note is the confluence located to the northeast, which will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the Ryukyu Islands. I’ll have more details on NEPARTAK in the ‘tropics section of this report. Elsewhere across the central region, tropical moisture is well established and the warm afternoon sun will lift this moisture up into scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon.

SOUTH

As Super typhoon NEPARTAK (Butchoy) moves out of the south region, we see a strong southwesterly feed setting up over the Philippines starting later this afternoon, which will lead to incessant ‘habagat’ rainfall through the weekend. These rainfall events are historic in nature, many times, and whereas current forecasts are not showing that kind of rainfall, there will be very heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flooding in parts of the Philippines, especially in provinces along the western seaboard of Luzon, and in the western islands of the Visayas. Residents of the higher elevations in these provinces need to be alert for flash flooding and possible landslides. An area of confluence associated with NEPARTAK is located near the southern Philippines, and will greatly enhance rainfall chances there through the day. Elsewhere across the region, deep tropical moisture is settled in and will get a nice lift from the warm afternoon sun for a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for most locations.

TROPICS

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK, also named ‘Butchoy’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, is bearing down on Taiwan today, and bringing rain to locales far to the northeast and southwest. What many are calling the ‘perfect storm’ is presenting a very dangerous scenario for residents of Taiwan, who will take the full brunt of the storm later tonight. Here’s the latest statistics on STY02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy):

NEPARTAK-full-070716

TY 02W NEPARTAK (Butchoy)

J.M.A. 0500 PST

Position: 20.7N, 125.6 E

Location: 320mi (515km) east-southeast of Taitung City, Taiwan

Pressure: 900 hPa

Movement: WNW at 25kph

Winds: 213kph with gusts to 306kph

Strength: Super Typhoon (CAT 5 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale)

NEPARTAK (Butchoy) is expected to continue to move quickly to the west-northwest, making landfall late this evening along the southeastern coast of Taiwan. This system will be a deadly storm when it makes landfall, and confirmation of final preparations should be underway NOW in Taiwan, with final preparations nearing completion in southeastern China. As with all systems that track in this way, a feed of moisture from the southwest will slowly roll over the Philippines as the storm approaches Taiwan and moves into southeastern China. In the Philippines, this is known as the ‘hanging habagat’, and it is expected to dump heavy amounts of rainfall, especially over portions of the Visayas and western Luzon starting later today, through this weekend, and through the early part of next week. Significant flooding is likely in many locations of the Philippines, especially in the Metro Manila area where dense population coupled with generally weak drainage infrastructure often lead to historic flooding events. Stay with here at esternPacificeather.com for all the latest details on this dangerous situation. Elsewhere across the tropics, a few weak waves are rolling along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region. Long-range computer models are not showing any development in the coming days, but that can change in a hurry this time of year. We will keep an eye on things for you.

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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