Weekend update- July 9/10, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 9/10 JUL

There are a couple of things to focus on this weekend in the north region with heat in central China, and tropical troubles along the coast. The central region will also deal with issues of a tropical nature with heat to the south. The south region will see a good deal of rainfall over the weekend, while the tropics quiet down just a bit following 02W NEPARTAK.

NORTH

The remnants of 02W NEPARTAK will make their way into coastal provinces of China in the north region this weekend, bringing more rain to an area that has had its fair share so far this rainy season. Luckily, much of the energy and moisture with this system was thrust out when it impacted Taiwan, but enough remains to bring flooding rainfall to the saturated grounds of the eastern Chinese provinces. In the central provinces of China, intense summertime heat will be in place under partly cloudy and mostly sunny skies, and with high humidity in place over the continent, heat indices will approach very dangerous levels near 42C (108F) in these areas. To the north, Mongolia will see another very warm day, but will see temperatures drop sharply by tomorrow thanks to a shot of cooler air coming in from Siberia. Precipitation is possible across much of the region, especially in coastal areas and offshore, with better conditions as you travel inland.

CENTRAL

Full attention has been on what was once Super Typhoon 02W NEPARTAK, as it slammed into Taiwan yesterday, and continues to make its way across the region today. Fortunately, the storm had much of its punch taken out by the typhoon-killing mountains of Taiwan, but there’s plenty of moisture being delivered to areas that have already seen a great deal of rainfall over the past months. Extensive flooding of low-lying areas is likely in the coastal provinces of southeastern China, with possible landslides in the higher terrain as the system comes ashore today, and this rain will spread up the eastern coast through the weekend. Temperatures will be relatively warm across the region, with the warmest temperatures along the Vietnamese/Chinese border, where heat indices could approach 43C (111F) both days.

SOUTH

Showers and steady rainfall will plague parts of the Philippines over the weekend, as the strong southwest flow from the dying tropical system NEPARTAK continues to train over the archipelago. Plentiful moisture across the region will help fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms across much of the region, with less rainfall likely over Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia. Temperatures will be typically warm across the region, with no particularly hot conditions expected anywhere.

TROPICS

Severe Tropical Storm 02W NEPARTAK is slowly drifting to the NNW as residents of southeastern China hunker down and residents of Taiwan pick up the pieces. The system’s mid and low-level circulations have de-coupled, which has literally taken the breath right out of the system. Once again, the mountains of Taiwan have taken the brunt of a strong typhoon and saved the lives many in southeastern China as a result. NEPARTAK is expected to move inland today, and turn to the north across eastern China as it dissipates and allows the moisture to spread back out into the general flow of the atmosphere. Elsewhere across the region, several weak waves of energy are drifting along the general flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), bringing a good chance for clouds and showers to most locations region-wide.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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