Amidst one of the calmest tropical seasons in recent years we watch the “possibility” of a tropical storm and maybe our third named storm of the year. This Tropical Depression south of Hong Kong has a clear center rotations and is quite symmetrical. But it lacks the moisture and cloud cover early Tuesday morning to really warrant being upgraded to a named storm. (Which would be Mirinae, a name from Korea.)
Still though JMA continues to forecast it to upgrade, if it does it is not expected to become a typhoon and likely not a Severe Tropical Storm before making it to Hainan. The main thing going against the storm is time, it just not have the space to gather strength. Other conditions including lower shear and very warm seas especially in the Gulf Of Tonkin do look favorable so this means one can not take out the possibility of a surprise from the storm. But as far as conditions and model support for that matter are concerned it does not look like it will strengthen to much.
Still though those in Vietnam and Hainan should could get some heavy rainfall with localized flooding. Hainan mainly though Tuesday night through Wednesday with Vietnam being impacted by Thursday.
Meanwhile further East there is another area we are watching in the Philippine sea. Right now this is not expected to become much as wind shear is rather high in that area, but still the GFS does develop a Tropical storm by late week so that alone makes it warrant a watch.