Tropics Heat Up Near the Philippines, Could we have Nida / Carina

Heading in to the weekend all our attention has turned towards the Philippine Sea where a new Tropical Depression is rapidly blowing up and will likely become our 4th named storm of 2016. If JMA does upgrade it will be named Nida. (A traditional women’s name from Thailand.)

 

Tropical Depression IR LOOP

KEY NOTES

 

-The storm is already impacting the southern Philippines.

-Models do NOT have a clear grasp on where it could go after development.

-The Philippine Sea has a tendency to rapidly develop storms, thus continued monitoring is warranted.

-No Signal Force Warnings have been issued at this time.

 

Regardless if it does intensify or not those across pretty much all of the Philippines can expect some heavy rainfall and the possiblilty of flooding this weekend. As of Friday morning convective banding has been bringing thunderstorms across most of Visayas and Mindanao with the center of this TD remaining towards the east.

 

Since the storm has not been named yet (Carina) no signal force has been issued. I would still treat it at least like signal Force one in these places today. Be wary of ferry travel and steeper elevations prone to mudslides.

 

The rain should taper off for Visayas and Mindanao in to Saturday and Sunday but the western sea boards will continue to see moisture inflow. Including the Palawan area.

 

TD OUTLOOK

TD OUTLOOK

As we look ahead through the weekend in to Sunday and Monday the low will track North North West Moving over Northern Luzon and with it heavy rainfall up to 200-300mm possibly. This all depends on its forward movement and strength by Sunday but I still would be gearing up for at least low lying flooding From Cagayan south towards the NCR.

 

Key thing to keep in mind is this is still developing and models still do not have to much of a handle on it, so just relying on one specific model would be fool hardy at this junction of the storms development.

 

LONG RANGE

 

From Taiwan to Hong Kong there is a chance of this storm hitting. For example the NAVGEM Numerical Model shows Taiwan with a hit while GFS and ECMWF takes the storm over Luzon and closer to Hong Kong.  This is still days away but it is worth noting the northward track. This is better than a westward one that would take the storm in to Vietnam, a country that is still recovering from Mirinae.

td

 

 

 Tropical Storm Mirinae now continues to weaken across Northern Vietnam after rolling onshore Thursday early morning as a Severe Tropical storm with winds over 100kph.

One person was killed and five people were injured when a house collapsed in Hanoi due to the strong winds.

State TV reported the city of Ninh Binh was submerged in a half of a meter of water halting traffic. Meanwhile in Noi Bai all flights were stormcancelled due to the rough weather. Flight in and out of Hanoi were also suspended. In one town of Thai Binh 7 fishing vessels were sunk in port as waves crashed ashore.

 

With this damage and casualty toll we must take note that even tropical storms can still be severe and dangerous despite not having the “typhoon” name.  A example of this was in 2011 Tropical Storm Washi hit the southern Philippines killing a estimated 1,268–2,546 people.

 

Vietnam averages about 7-10 tropical storms or typhoons a year. Thus despite this calm season with only 3 named storms thus far things do not look over yet for the country, even as far as statistics are concerned.

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