The mass of convection over the Philippines now known as “Carina” by PAGASA and likely to be upgraded to Nida by JMA continues to slowly track north still bringing heavy rains for the central and northern areas of the country.
-The storm continues to track North North West along the coast of Visayas and Luzon. Outer rain bands though are still dominating the country and will continue to bring heavy rainfall in to Luzon through Monday.
-Models are coming more in agreement in a landfall in Cagayan before tracking north west towards south east China.
-The Philippine Sea has a tendency to rapidly develop storms, thus continued monitoring is warranted.
-Signal Force 1 has been issued across Eastern Visayas and South East Luzon Saturday morning.
Areas Under Signal Force 1
LUZON: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay and Sorsogon
VISAYAS: Northern Samar, Eastern Samar and Samar
Regardless if it does intensify or not those across pretty much all of the Philippines can expect some heavy rainfall and the possibility of flooding this weekend. As of Saturday morning convective banding has been bringing thunderstorms across most of Visayas and Southern Luzon with the center of this TD remaining towards the east of Samar.
The rain should taper off for Visayas and Mindanao in to Saturday and Sunday but the western sea boards will continue to see moisture inflow. Including the Palawan area.
As we look ahead through the weekend in to Sunday and Monday the low will track North North West Moving over Northern Luzon and with it heavy rainfall up to 200-300mm possibly. This all depends on its forward movement and strength by Sunday but I still would be gearing up for at least low lying flooding From Cagayan south towards the NCR.
Still though across the mountains of Northern Luzon the threat of flooding and landslides will be very real and thus people here should be on guard.
From Taiwan to Hong Kong there is a chance of this storm hitting. Today though most numerical guidance has become more and more inline with the storm tracking towards Guangdong in South East China, this includes the Hong Kong area. This is still days away but it is worth noting the northward track. This is better than a westward one that would take the storm in to Vietnam, a country that is still recovering from Mirinae.