The “Layman’s Tropical Update”…11:00am PST update, July 31, 2016.
Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) continues to slowly strengthen and increase forward speed as it approaches the coast of northeast Luzon…landfall forecast later today over Cagayan province…heavy rainfall threatens mountainous areas of northern Luzon…
Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina)
**PAGASA (8:00am PST) – 17.2N, 123.8E
**JMA (8:00am PST) – 17.4N, 123.0E
**JTWC (11:00am PST) – 16.9N, 123.5E
Location: Approximately 72km (39nm) ESE of, Divilacan, Isabela, Philippines
Movement: West-northwest at 10 kts (20kph)
**PAGASA- 46 kts (85kph) with gusts near 54 kts (100kph)
**JMA- 50 kts (93kph) with gusts near 70 kts (130kph);
**JTWC- 55 kts (102kph) with gusts near 70 kts (130kph)
JMA- Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC- Tropical Storm
Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) continues to move to the west-northwest and slowly strengthen as it tracks quickly towards the province of Cagayan in northeast Luzon.
Current forecasts continue to show Severe Tropical Storm 06W NIDA (Carina) to track mostly west-northwestward towards northeast Luzon, with landfall expected later this afternoon near Cabutunan Point, Cagayan province.
The center of NIDA (Carina) is currently moving towards the island of Luzon after quickly getting better organized yesterday evening. Agencies are in agreement on the projected track of the system, taking in over northeastern Luzon, back out into the Luzon Strait by tomorrow, with an eventual path to Hong Kong later in the week. The system is not expected to strengthen much more before landfall, due to land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Luzon, however, it will at least maintain strength due to the center of circulation’s location over very warm water, and the relatively low land features along the projected path.
As of 8:00am PST, PAGASA had issued TCWS storm signals for the following locations:
PSWS #2- Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Abra, and Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands
PSWS #1- Batanes Group of Islands, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Aurora
All areas advised should continue to closely monitor this storm system. Once the storm makes landfall, it will cross the area quickly, and re-emerge over water later tonight.
STORM SURGE WILL BE MODERATE ALONG THE SHORES OF EASTERN CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA PROVINCES. STORM SURGE IN THESE AREAS COULD REACH 3-6 FEET. SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT SURGE EVENT AS THE UNDERWATER SLOPE INTO THE AREA IS GRADUAL AND ALLOWS FOR EASY TRANSPORTATION OF SURGE ENERGY INTO COASTAL AREAS.
Rainfall will be heavy with this system. This storm will bring TORRENTIAL levels of rainfall to areas in its direct path, and within 50 km of the path. DO NOT DISREGARD THIS SYSTEM, EVEN IF IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER YOUR AREA.
Particular hazards include storm surge in the range of 3-6 feet…mud/landslides, flooding of rivers and tributaries, and significant structural and vegetation (trees/crops) damage. I estimate that most areas within 50km of the center’s track could easily pick up 200-300mm of rainfall by Monday, with some locations to the north of the center and in the higher terrain receiving as much as 400mm, OR MORE, of rain in isolated locations.
All preparations should be finished. Everyone that has chosen to stay should be preparing to stay inside for the next several hours.
IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM:
YOU SHOULD BE FINISHED WITH YOUR STORM PREPARATIONS NOW.
Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit. Include a flashlight, batteries, cash, and first aid supplies.
Plan how to communicate with family members if you lose power. For example, you can call, text, email or use social media. Remember that during disasters, sending text messages is usually reliable and faster than making phone calls because phone lines are often overloaded or damaged.
Review your evacuation plan with your family. You may have to leave quickly so plan ahead.
Keep your vehicle in good working condition, and keep the gas tank NO LESS than ½ full; stock your vehicle with emergency supplies and a change of clothes.
If you plan to stay home during the storm, extra water, LPG gas, and fuel should be acquired and stored. Non-perishable food resources should also be secured and stored.
Water craft should monitor weather events closely. DO NOT venture from port until the storm passes due to strong winds and wind-generated waves making it VERY hazardous on the open seas.
The forecasts change every 6 hours, so stay tuned because we are CLOSELY monitoring this system and will bring you the VERY LATEST information as it is updated, in REAL TIME.
DO NOT PANIC. PREPARATION IS THE KEY TO BEING READY FOR ANY POSSIBLE OUTCOME.
Courtesy: JMA, JTWC, PAGASA, WPACWX.COM, RAMMB-NOAA
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