Archive | August 1, 2016

Daily weather brief – Monday, August 1, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 01 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 01 AUG

Warm summertime temperatures settle in across most of the north region to start the work week. Unsettled weather will dampen things across portions of east-central China, and especially Japan, where a possibility of severe storms threatens the archipelago.

All eyes on the central region are watching the South China Sea as Severe Tropical Storm NIDA, also named ‘Carina’ by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, is bearing down on the southeastern Chinese coast, with more strengthening ahead and landfall expected early tomorrow morning very close to Hong Kong. For more on this system, please see the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

Most of the south region will see scattered afternoon thunderstorms, as the Philippines deals with the waning effects of Severe Tropical Storm NIDA (Carina). Plenty of deep moisture elsewhere in the region will get a lift from the warm afternoon sun, with a good chance for showers region-wide.

Aside from Severe Tropical Storm NIDA (Carina), the tropics are quiet for now. Long-range models hint at some development within the next 7 days, so we will keep a close eye on things as we approach the peak of the tropical season in the northern hemisphere. Lots of convergence is drifting along the general westerly flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely from central to eastern Micronesia, and in the Marshall Islands.

 

NORTH

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

34

21 93 70

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

24

19 75 66

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

30

23 86 73

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Seoul

31

24 88 75

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms likely (Sctd. severe)

Xi’an

37

23 99 73

Scattered thunderstorms & HOT

Shanghai

33

28 91 82

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

26

14 79 57

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

34

28 93 82

Thunderstorms likely/Incr. rain/wind

Taipei

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

Naha

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

36

27 97 81

Partly cloudy & HOT

 

SOUTH

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

34

25 93 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

33

25 91 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

 

TROPICS

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

31

25 88 77

Partly cloudy

Palau

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

27

21 81 70

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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NIDA / CARINA LEAVES LUZON AND SETS EYES ON HONG KONG, MONDAY AM OUTLOOK

 

Severe tropical storm (Typhoon via JTWC) Nida (Carina known in the Philippines) continues to track north west today pulling away from the North Coast of Luzon where it blew through Sunday stifling travel across the area and forcing at least 500 families to evacuate according to the NDRRMC. Good news is that no deaths have been reported at this time due to the storm in the Philippines.

Key Notes

 

  • The northern Philippines is relatively rural though and is prone to typhoons contributing to the zero casualty toll.
  • Nida is expected to intensify through Monday becoming a Cat 1 to Cat 2 Typhoon.
  • Landfall is expected near Hong Kong early Tuesday morning
  • The storm has a vast amount of moisture with it thus inland areas of Guangdong will experience the threat of flooding through Wednesday.

 

As of Monday morning Nida continues to re-intensify after being disrupted moving over the Northern Philippines.  Quickly looking at satellite imagery it actually looks more like a monsoonal low pressure area and less like a Typhoon. Favorable conditions over the South China Sea will likely change that. Sea surface temperatures over 30C, good exhaust aloft and low vertical wind shear will contribute to further intensification.

 

I think the model with the best handle on intensity is the HWRF which expects the storm to have winds around 90-100kts at landfall in the right front quadrant.  The exact point of landfall is important though because winds in the left front quadrant may not be nearly as intense. This is a type of system where the center line plays an important role on who will get the worst weather.

 

If the storm tracks directly over the city of Hong Kong for example the worst of the weather should be about 50km to the east where the max winds are going to be coming on shore.  This would be a different story though if the storm made landfall just west of Hong Kong.

Regardless people today should be making those typhoon preps. Expect schools and businesses to be closed in Hong Kong Tuesday morning as well. Depending on the forward speed of the storm though Typhoon 7 could be dropped by lunch time which has happened in the past, this allows people to return to work after the storm ends.

After the storm tracks inland through Tuesday in to Wednesday it will continue to bring rainfall across Guangdong. Up to 120 to 150mm of total precipitation is possible

Since June natural disasters have killed over 800 people in China. Earlier this month Typhoon Nepartak produced over a billion dollards in damages in Taiwan and Fujian after it blew through the region.