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NIDA / CARINA LEAVES LUZON AND SETS EYES ON HONG KONG, MONDAY AM OUTLOOK

 

Severe tropical storm (Typhoon via JTWC) Nida (Carina known in the Philippines) continues to track north west today pulling away from the North Coast of Luzon where it blew through Sunday stifling travel across the area and forcing at least 500 families to evacuate according to the NDRRMC. Good news is that no deaths have been reported at this time due to the storm in the Philippines.

Key Notes

 

  • The northern Philippines is relatively rural though and is prone to typhoons contributing to the zero casualty toll.
  • Nida is expected to intensify through Monday becoming a Cat 1 to Cat 2 Typhoon.
  • Landfall is expected near Hong Kong early Tuesday morning
  • The storm has a vast amount of moisture with it thus inland areas of Guangdong will experience the threat of flooding through Wednesday.

 

As of Monday morning Nida continues to re-intensify after being disrupted moving over the Northern Philippines.  Quickly looking at satellite imagery it actually looks more like a monsoonal low pressure area and less like a Typhoon. Favorable conditions over the South China Sea will likely change that. Sea surface temperatures over 30C, good exhaust aloft and low vertical wind shear will contribute to further intensification.

 

I think the model with the best handle on intensity is the HWRF which expects the storm to have winds around 90-100kts at landfall in the right front quadrant.  The exact point of landfall is important though because winds in the left front quadrant may not be nearly as intense. This is a type of system where the center line plays an important role on who will get the worst weather.

 

If the storm tracks directly over the city of Hong Kong for example the worst of the weather should be about 50km to the east where the max winds are going to be coming on shore.  This would be a different story though if the storm made landfall just west of Hong Kong.

Regardless people today should be making those typhoon preps. Expect schools and businesses to be closed in Hong Kong Tuesday morning as well. Depending on the forward speed of the storm though Typhoon 7 could be dropped by lunch time which has happened in the past, this allows people to return to work after the storm ends.

After the storm tracks inland through Tuesday in to Wednesday it will continue to bring rainfall across Guangdong. Up to 120 to 150mm of total precipitation is possible

Since June natural disasters have killed over 800 people in China. Earlier this month Typhoon Nepartak produced over a billion dollards in damages in Taiwan and Fujian after it blew through the region.

 

 

 

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