Archive | August 7, 2016

Tropical Storm Omais Skirts Tokyo and Central Japan, Hot Mess in the Tropics for Next Week

At first glance this morning any Tokyo resident might see a satellite picture of Severe Tropical Storm Omais and begin to feel a sense of worry as the storm sits only a few kilometers off the pacific coastline of the Kanto region and the Greater Tokyo area.


Good news despite its close proximity this storm should have little to no impact on the Tokyo area. Dry air has been wrapping in to the system from the west weakening it and leaving the western half of the storm devoid of precipitation.


Still though coastal Honshu could see some breezy conditions this Monday as well as waves up to 5-6 meters in some locations. I know it’s the middle of the summer holidays Nippon but today would be a better day to stay in doors and enjoy the Olympics instead of going to the beach.



Eventually Omais will track north through Tuesday saying east of Honshu buffered by a high pressure over the island while a passing trough dives in across Hokkaido pulling a classic hook and lure on Omais thrusting the storm north in to a extra-tropical state by Wednesday morning


On another note the high pressure keeping Omais to the east is also producing hot and steamy conditions across Japan to start off the week. Not much of a change in fact from this past weekend where about 1,000 people were taken to the hospital due to heat stroke as the heat index climbed well in to the 40s.






Model guidance has shown a “hot mess” in the tropics later this week with several storms blowing up all at once and circulating some sort of Fujiwara effect. To be honest when you get such a complex mess of storms on long range model outlooks it almost never comes to pass exactly as the models predict.  Something will happen though to the east of the Philippines and the eventually outcome will likely be heavy rainfall for the Philippines as a “habagat” or enhanced monsoonal event sets up. Flooding even in the Manila area could be possible if the winds are right.