Daily weather brief – Tuesday, August 9, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 09 AUG

NORTH 

A truly mixed bag of weather will take place across Japan today, with dangerous heat, high waves, flooding rain in the higher elevations, and strong afternoon thunderstorms for some locations. J.M.A. (Japan meteorological Agency) has issued numerous warnings and bulletins and warnings. For more information, go to the JMA website.

JAPAN full, 09 AUG

Elsewhere across the north region, fairly stable, but hot, weather will settle in this afternoon, especially over interior China. A few thunderstorms may pop up along a cold front in Mongolia, and a few scattered thunderstorms are possible in eastern China, but everyone else should see a dry day ahead.

CENTRAL 

Most of the central region will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as tropical moisture remains in place and gets a shot of energy in the form of 99W INVEST, which is scheduled to move into mainland China later today. Heavy rainfall is possible in some locations, bringing a risk of flooding and landslides, especially over the higher terrain.

SOUTH

Rainfall increases over the northern half of the Philippines, as a major monsoonal rainfall event begins to shape up over the region. Current forecast models are showing a wild variety of swirling dervishes out there over the next week or so that will likely make our heads spin, The grand result of it all is a major rainfall event for the northern half of the Philippines, and especially western provinces of Luzon, starting late in the week and through early next week. This will shape up to be a typical “habagat” event, although it’s not expected to reach historical proportions. For more on this developing situation, please check out Meteorologist Robert Speta’s full report.

HABAGAT full, 09 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a rather standard dose of showers and thunderstorms later today, as ample moisture gets a lift from the intense afternoon sun.

TROPICS

 A world of trouble is brewing in the tropics, as we now have two named systems, and one area of INVEST, and models are showing at least a couple more lows developing out there before we get to the end of next week. Right now, we are watching Tropical Storm 07W OMAIS get ready to go *poof* as it moves into cooler water, begins extra-tropical transition, and moves out to sea. OMAIS’s influence is not to be overlooked. Because of its monsoonal structure, the storm pulled in a great deal of monsoonal moisture and energy into the western portion of the basin, setting us up for what is coming ahead. It was the ‘gate-keeper’ storm, if you will. There is always a ‘gate-keeper’ storm that opens things up at the onset of an active M.J.O. phase. Tropical storm 08W CONSON is next, out east of the Marianas, and is expected to follow roughly the same path as OMAIS, but it appears that this system will show more of a tropical profile. Finally, there’s 99W INVEST, west-southwest of Okinawa, moving west and bound for mainland China later today. Models hint that 99W’s energy will relocate over the next couple of days to east of Hainan Island and begin to redevelop as a different system, as another low is expected to develop south-southeast of Okinawa, and further deepen the weather hole for the Philippines.

07/08 combo full, 09 AUG

99W, 09 AUG

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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