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Two Named Storms and Severe Flood Threat in Luzon

Tropical Risk (1)

Someone dropped a match on the figurative tropical dynamite this week as we went from a calm season to a full blown hot mess across the North West Pacific.
Tropical storm Omais is now tracking along the east coast of Japan bringing gusting winds over 100kph and waves up to 6 meters high along the east coast of Tohoku and Hokkaido through Tuesday in to Wednesday morning.

 

At least this storm is ushering in cloud cover for those areas sparing them from the dangerous heat that is dominating the rest of the country.

 

Meanwhile to the South East Tropical Storm Conson was named today about half way between Wake Island and Guam. Good news this storm could be a full on fish storm as it tracks north towards a weak area in the sub-tropical ridge. This will likely keep it even east of the Ogasawara islands with the main impact being high waves from the storm.

Then as we look back west near the Philippines another monsoonal low is blowing up today and with it our attention turns towards the possibility of this forming in to a named tropical system.  The chance is there but at least for now it is embedded within a high amount of shear within the monsoonal trough which is keeping it from forming a organized center or circulation.
Regardless if this happens or not it will trigger persistent heavy rainfall across central Luzon this week and possibly in to next week. In fact we could be seeing a major flood event for Manila and the NCR if the winds set up just right with this storm.

 

96hr rainfall

96hr rainfall

To clarify we are likely looking at a Habagat type of event where persistent rain in poor drainage and low lying areas results in flooding backing up sewers, blocking roadways and just causing all around problems.

 

The worst hit areas will likely be from North East Luzon south through Palawan within 100km of the west coast.

 

The barrage of rainfall that has already started will likely last all through next week when the tropical systems begin to taper off.

 

LASTLY

A minor tropical depression is also lingering off the south east coast of China, this will not become a named storm but is still worth nothing as it should bring some rainfall and gusty winds in areas south of Shanghai.

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