Archive | August 10, 2016

HABAGAT SHUTS DOWN SCHOOLS AND FLOODS PARTS OF MANILA, PLUS TROPICAL OUTLOOK

 

The tropics continue their show of force today with Tropical Storm Conson stirring up the oceans west of Wake island, a minor tropical depression bringing showers in Taipei and Okinawa and the enhanced monsoon shutting down schools across Luzon.

 

The area with the biggest impact is the one that is not a “organized tropicsl system”. That is the Habagat or the enhanced monsoon which has ushered in a rather potent river of moisture across the Philippines triggering flooding in the NCR and shutting down dozens of schools.

96hr rainfall

96hr rainfall

Radar shows this enhanced monsoon rather clearly pushing over the city and thus bringing the persistant rainfall. But

PH RADAR

what is triggering this? Overall it is the monsoonal trough which is stretching all the way out towards Guam. Along it is a large low that is helping draw the moisture in from the west like a conveyor belt towards the Philippine Sea.

 

This low is expected to remain in place through the weekend stirring up continued rainfall for much of Luzon with the heaviest within 100km of the WestCoast.

 

The monsoonal low itself could further develop over the coming week in to something more if conditions are right. It all depends on if shear weakens enough so it can obtain a organized center of circulation, plus if other low pressure areas in the region don’t starve it of energy. In short there is a lot going on.

 

One thing that seems likely though is that IF this does develop it will likely linger around Okinawa and Taiwan. Reason is the Tibetan high now located over Korea and Japan and the main reason temperatures have been breaking records across the two countries the last few days will continue to remain in place.

With that there any tropical system forming to the south of it will likely stay in place.

 

Meanwhile back towards the east Severe Tropical Storm Conson is tracking north today and is really only a hazard for shipping lanes in the region. Otherwise not to much to worry from our 6th named storm of the year.

 

By the way, the Persied Meteor Shower is at its peak on Thursday and Friday, check it out if you have clear skies and hopefully away from the city lights.

Perseid Meteor Shower 2016

 

  • Peak on August 11th and 12th
  • In the northern sky just towards the constellation Perseus
  • Will be near the horizon starting around 10pm
  • Brightest will be around 1AM after Moonset
  • Best place to watch is in rural areas free of light pollution

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, August 10, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 10 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 10 AUG

NORTH

A taste of autumn returns to portions of Mongolia as cooler air settles in from the north. The remainder of the region is firmly embedded in summer with very warm temperatures expected over interior China. A few clouds and showers will pop up over Japan and eastern China, but everyone else will see lots of sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

22

9 72 48

Thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

24

22 75 72

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Seoul

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Xi’an

37

26 99 79

Mostly fair & HOT

Shanghai

33

28 91 82

Thunderstorms possible

 

CENTRAL

Much of the central region will see showers and thunderstorms today, thanks to deep tropical moisture, and persistent energy in the southeastern reaches of the region. Some showers will be heavy this afternoon, especially over higher terrain, where flooding and landslides are possible.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

25

17 77 63

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

35

27 95 81

Scattered thunderstorms & HOT

Naha

31

28 88 82

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

All attention in the south region is turned to the developing monsoon, which will continue to bring in copious moisture over the Philippines in the coming days. The tropics have literally blown up over the past 24 hours, and I’ll cover more of that in the next section. The current forecasts call for tropical lows to develop in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea, and team up with 08W CONSON as it tracks to the NW, to bring in moisture and supply energy for a sustained rainfall event, or ‘habagat’ as it is known locally, over the Philippines starting later this week through early next week. Rainfall estimates are in the 400-500mm+ range at this time, and developments could raise that estimate. The remainder of the region will see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as monsoonal moisture and energy stay locked in over the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

26 84 79

Periods of heavy rain

Davao City

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS 

08W CONSON full, 10 AUG

08W CONSON full, 10 AUG

INVEST full, 10 AUG

INVEST full, 10 AUG

The tropics have really come alive over the past 24 hours, which was expected by most. 07W OMAIS has been declared extra-tropical by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) as it moves out of the basin. Tropical storm CONSON, east of the Marianas, is having difficulty getting organized due to westerly vertical wind shear, courtesy of a T.U.T.T. (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) immediately to its north-northwest. Another swirl of energy has been declared 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in central Micronesia, but development is not anticipated out here. Finally, a long west-to-east oriented trough of low pressure exists from the northern South China Sea, eastward into the Philippines Sea. 92W INVEST is winding up on the eastern end of this trough, south-southeast of Okinawa, with development expected, and I fully expect the western end of that trough north of the Philippines to be designated 93W later this afternoon. Models are showing a vast collection of solutions, but the only thing we’re nearly sure about is CONSON’s anticipated movement on a track similar to OMAIS.

The remainder of the region will see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best weather over the western Micronesian islands of Yap and Palau.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

28

23 82 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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