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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, August 10, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 10 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 10 AUG

NORTH

A taste of autumn returns to portions of Mongolia as cooler air settles in from the north. The remainder of the region is firmly embedded in summer with very warm temperatures expected over interior China. A few clouds and showers will pop up over Japan and eastern China, but everyone else will see lots of sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

22

9 72 48

Thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

24

22 75 72

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Seoul

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Xi’an

37

26 99 79

Mostly fair & HOT

Shanghai

33

28 91 82

Thunderstorms possible

 

CENTRAL

Much of the central region will see showers and thunderstorms today, thanks to deep tropical moisture, and persistent energy in the southeastern reaches of the region. Some showers will be heavy this afternoon, especially over higher terrain, where flooding and landslides are possible.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

25

17 77 63

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

35

27 95 81

Scattered thunderstorms & HOT

Naha

31

28 88 82

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

All attention in the south region is turned to the developing monsoon, which will continue to bring in copious moisture over the Philippines in the coming days. The tropics have literally blown up over the past 24 hours, and I’ll cover more of that in the next section. The current forecasts call for tropical lows to develop in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea, and team up with 08W CONSON as it tracks to the NW, to bring in moisture and supply energy for a sustained rainfall event, or ‘habagat’ as it is known locally, over the Philippines starting later this week through early next week. Rainfall estimates are in the 400-500mm+ range at this time, and developments could raise that estimate. The remainder of the region will see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as monsoonal moisture and energy stay locked in over the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

26 84 79

Periods of heavy rain

Davao City

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS 

08W CONSON full, 10 AUG

08W CONSON full, 10 AUG

INVEST full, 10 AUG

INVEST full, 10 AUG

The tropics have really come alive over the past 24 hours, which was expected by most. 07W OMAIS has been declared extra-tropical by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) as it moves out of the basin. Tropical storm CONSON, east of the Marianas, is having difficulty getting organized due to westerly vertical wind shear, courtesy of a T.U.T.T. (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) immediately to its north-northwest. Another swirl of energy has been declared 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in central Micronesia, but development is not anticipated out here. Finally, a long west-to-east oriented trough of low pressure exists from the northern South China Sea, eastward into the Philippines Sea. 92W INVEST is winding up on the eastern end of this trough, south-southeast of Okinawa, with development expected, and I fully expect the western end of that trough north of the Philippines to be designated 93W later this afternoon. Models are showing a vast collection of solutions, but the only thing we’re nearly sure about is CONSON’s anticipated movement on a track similar to OMAIS.

The remainder of the region will see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best weather over the western Micronesian islands of Yap and Palau.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

28

23 82 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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