The tropics continue their show of force today with Tropical Storm Conson stirring up the oceans west of Wake island, a minor tropical depression bringing showers in Taipei and Okinawa and the enhanced monsoon shutting down schools across Luzon.


The area with the biggest impact is the one that is not a “organized tropicsl system”. That is the Habagat or the enhanced monsoon which has ushered in a rather potent river of moisture across the Philippines triggering flooding in the NCR and shutting down dozens of schools.

96hr rainfall

96hr rainfall

Radar shows this enhanced monsoon rather clearly pushing over the city and thus bringing the persistant rainfall. But


what is triggering this? Overall it is the monsoonal trough which is stretching all the way out towards Guam. Along it is a large low that is helping draw the moisture in from the west like a conveyor belt towards the Philippine Sea.


This low is expected to remain in place through the weekend stirring up continued rainfall for much of Luzon with the heaviest within 100km of the WestCoast.


The monsoonal low itself could further develop over the coming week in to something more if conditions are right. It all depends on if shear weakens enough so it can obtain a organized center of circulation, plus if other low pressure areas in the region don’t starve it of energy. In short there is a lot going on.


One thing that seems likely though is that IF this does develop it will likely linger around Okinawa and Taiwan. Reason is the Tibetan high now located over Korea and Japan and the main reason temperatures have been breaking records across the two countries the last few days will continue to remain in place.

With that there any tropical system forming to the south of it will likely stay in place.


Meanwhile back towards the east Severe Tropical Storm Conson is tracking north today and is really only a hazard for shipping lanes in the region. Otherwise not to much to worry from our 6th named storm of the year.


By the way, the Persied Meteor Shower is at its peak on Thursday and Friday, check it out if you have clear skies and hopefully away from the city lights.

Perseid Meteor Shower 2016


  • Peak on August 11th and 12th
  • In the northern sky just towards the constellation Perseus
  • Will be near the horizon starting around 10pm
  • Brightest will be around 1AM after Moonset
  • Best place to watch is in rural areas free of light pollution

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