Daily weather brief – Thursday, August 11, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 11 AUG

NORTH 

Intense heat takes over eastern and central portions of the north region, while a taste of autumn remains in the air far to the north. Heat indices will approach hazardous levels across interior China this afternoon, as heat indices approach 44C (111F). Outdoor activities should be restricted to morning and evening hours in these locations. The remainder of the region will see another warm and sunny day, with just a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL 

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the central region today, as another ripple of tropical moisture and energy moves into southeastern China. This region has received quite a bit of rainfall over the past few months, and the ground is essentially saturated, so any additional rainfall will bring a risk of flooding and also a risk of landslides in mountainous terrain.

SOUTH

As the complicated weather scenario plays itself out in the south region and tropics, the Philippines holds its collective breath for the outcome and results. Several ripples of energy have started morphing into vortices in the monsoon flow, but different factors have prevented any of them from taking center stage. Models still show a collaboration between low pressure areas to the northeast and northwest of the Philippines in the coming days, which will lead to a major rainfall event between Friday and Tuesday. In the meantime, some periods of heavy rain will crop up today along the western shores of Luzon, especially over Batangas province, and south over Mindoro Island, but coverage is not expected to be as much as in the past couple of days. Everyone else across the region will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating.

TROPICS 

The tropics are a hot mess right now, with copious tropical moisture being trucked in from the southwest by the strong monsoonal flow, and numerous ripples of energy stirring up into vortices all over the place. TS 08W CONSON is still out there and has taken a turn to the north. This system is expected to remain well offshore as it takes a similar path as OMAIS last week. Two more areas of disturbed weather are hovering around to the west, with 92W tracking westward as it passes over Taiwan and into southeastern China, and 93W, which is the eastern terminus of a persistent east-west trough of low pressure that has spawned 99W and 92W over the past 48 hours. This trough is the hot spot right now for cyclogenesis in the region, and models predict formation in this area over the next few days.

08W full, 11 AUG

INVEST full, 11 AUG

Elsewhere across the region, tropical moisture is combining with plentiful energy to bring a good chance for showers or thunderstorms to most locations.

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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